Fines for lockdown violators and wider closures as COVID-19 surges in West Bank and Gaza

Palestinian doctors wearing PPE prepares to care for patients infected with the coronavirus, in the isolation department at al-Aqsa hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza on December 6, 2020. (Photo: Ashraf Amra/APA Images)

The latest:

  • 121,157 Palestinians who tested positive for COVID-19; 94,349 recoveries; 1,029 deaths
  • Of those who tested positive, 79,188 are in the West Bank, 27,434 are in the Gaza Strip, and 14,535 are in East Jerusalem
  • 353,269 Israelis tested positive for COVID-19; 333,900 recoveries; 2,969 deaths

The coronavirus continues to surge across the West Bank and Gaza, prompting Palestinian authorities to shut down entire cities, restrict movement, and for a first time threatened punitive damages for violations. 

On Thursday the Palestinian Ministry of Interior said those who break the rules could be up to fined $1,400 and sentenced to one year in prison. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh addressed the public and announced the expanded lockdown measures enacted through the West Bank’s Emergency Law, a presidential provision akin to governors in the U.S. issuing an executive order.

Here are the major changes announced by Shtayyeh:

  • Nablus, Hebron, Bethlehem and Tulkarem are “entirely closed for seven day closed for seven days, as of 7:00 PM on 10 December 2020. All retail and service stores shall be closed, except pharmacies, bakeries, supermarkets, and grocery stores.” Schools are also closed in these districts.
  • Movement between major cities across the West Bank is banned until December 17, along with continuing a curfew for the next seven days and banning prayers in mosques. 
  • For the next week all government and private firms in the West Bank should run on essential employees, with at least 70% of the employees in every office ordered to stay home. 
  • A night time curfew already in place will continue across the West Bank until December 17.
  • Wedding and funerals are explicitly prohibited, although mourners keep flaunting this restriction.
  • All private hospitals across the West Bank “shall allocate spaces for COVID-19 patients. It shall be prohibited for any hospital to reject any cases transferred by the Ministry of Health under penalty of law.”

A series of new restrictions were also announced in Gaza beginning today and continuing through the end of the year. According to a Mondoweiss analysis, around 40% of the active Palestinian COVID-19 cases are located in Gaza and around half of the deaths over the last week occurred there:

  • Universities and elementary schools, mosques and markets across all of Gaza are ordered closed.
  • Funeral and weddings are prohibited. 
  • A curfew will begin over the weekend shuttering all businesses and movement on the streets, save for emergency services, deliveries and pharmacies. 
Palestinian laboratory specialist, works in Gaza City on December 7, 2020. The central laboratory had to pause conducting laboratory tests over the weekend due to the exhaustion of the testing materials. (Photo: Ashraf Amra/APA Images)

Following up: last week we reported that Gaza was on the brink of running out of COVID-19 tests for at least the third time since March. At the time we published, we weren’t sure how this situation would pan out. Now we can report that while Gaza did run out of tests over the weekend, the WHO secured a new shipment that arrived on Monday, paid for by Kuwait and Germany. 

The WHO “procured 295 kits to perform around 28,000 tests. The first 195 kits (to provide 18,720 tests) were delivered on 7 December and enabled the lab to resume testing, with the remaining tests to be delivered in coming days,” according to the latest situation report

We also reported that Gaza had the second highest positivity rate in the world. This week it has the number 8 position, when considering the results of tests administered between December 1 to December 10 (a 29.3% positivity rate).

The Palestinian economy shrank 8% in 2020

About two weeks ago the World Bank released its November economic development report and the macro indicators are not good. The Palestinian economy is due to contract about 8% over 2020, slighter more in Gaza than the West Bank. That amount could increase if significant lockdowns continue throughout the end of the year, which seems likely from the vantage point we’re at today. 

“The outlook for the Palestinian economy looks grim especially after the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak,” the World Bank said

The World Bank expects a nominal recovery in 2021, projecting the GDP will grow 2.3%, however, the GDP per capita is projected to decrease 0.2% in 2021 and continue decreasing by another 0.7% in 2022. By year’s end, the World Bank predicts the Palestinian Authority will be squeezed by a $1.23 billion deficit. A portion will be covered by emergency funds secured from donor countries, but the gap is supposed to still be around $760 million. 

The big picture: What’s likely coming is that the PA will issue deeper cuts to basic services like medical and social security benefits to partially cover its debts “resulting in a much deeper economic contraction” than current projections “thereby increasing the hardship,” the World Bank noted. 

The fine print: Across the West Bank and Gaza people are buying less, their checks are bouncing more, and few items are making their way into the market from abroad. The report found consumption decreased 7% since January, imports are down 8.5% and exports are down 15%. The lower demand has caused a 1.5% price drop in consumer goods, which is good for consumers and bad for shopkeepers, and generally a marker of a downturn. 

Interestingly, industrial production is about 50% higher than it was in the pre-pandemic period. Production took a huge hit in April when around two-thirds of factories shut and more than 120,000 lost their jobs, but has since shot up. The growth is isolated to a few sectors that are responding to the pandemic, meaning there’s no bump up to the labor market and money earned from manufacturing is not diffused enough to offset the wider job loss across.

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