Turkey vs. possible scenarios in Syria

Alwaght- At the present time, Turkey is facing challenges from different sides due to the crisis in the neighboring Syria. Ankara has changed the friendship borders with Syria into borders for challenge and conflict, and any time it can get engaged in a destructive war. This comes while the neighboring Syria has couple of scenarios in front in which none of Turkey’s interests are obtainable. The Scenarios are as follows:

Retention of President Bashar al-Assad in power

If this scenario takes place, Ankara would be the greatest loser of the Syrian developments, because just unlike the other countries of the anti-Assad Western-Arab camp, Turkey is the only country to share borders with Syria. In fact, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the US and the EU are far away from the battlefield but Turkey has to live on beside a neighbor against which Ankara has taken toughest stances. The consequences of this scenario are:

– Ongoing chilled relations between Syria and Turkey

– Disappearance of the Turkish economic interests in Syria

– Closure of the transit routes of the Arab Middle East to Turkey

This scenario, is now under way in Syria, could immerse Turkey in an array of challenges and problems, and even challenge the legitimacy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, because it was him who involved his country in a crisis that not only brought forth no benefits for Turkey but also jeopardized a large portion of the Turkish economic interests as well as security.

Fall of the Syrian government

Should the Syrian government collapses, a couple of scenarios are very likely.

The first scenario is that the Western-Arab front-backed Syrian opposition could seize the power in the country. In this case, Turkey, due to its close connections with them, could secure an appropriate place in the future Syria.

The second scenario is that the rule of the country could fall in the hands of the militants belonging to Al-Qaeda and the Salafists should the current Damascus government breaks up. In this case, Turkey becomes neighbor to Al-Qaeda and so should expect arrival of radical ideologies and beliefs to its territory. Additionally, a wave of terrorism and extremism would always pose a threat to the Turkish borders.

Split of Syria

Once the Syrian government falls, it is very likely that the country breaks into three or four smaller regions. In this case there would be an Alawite government, A Kurdish government and a Sunni government with ideologies close to Al-Qaeda. So, not only Turkey has to grapple with risks coming from next door Salafist government but also after rise of Kurdish and Alawite states inside Syria, Turkey should expect start of moves for partition of its territory, because both the Kurds and Alawites of Turkey are discontented with their current status and so may seek joining the newly-founded states of Syria.

In general, split of Syria would mean continued domestic war inside Syria and so ongoing violence on the Turkish-Syrian borders. The sectarian inclinations of the Sunnis and Alawites as well as the ethnic tendencies of the Kurds and Turks produce tensions in the neighboring Syria. This adds to the possible spillover of insecurity to Turkey as the radical groups like Al-Qaeda and influx of Syrian refugees continue to be problematic for Ankara.

Federal system in Syria

For the present time, the idea of federalization of Syria is being followed by Russia and the US. Once the idea is realized on the ground, Syria would be broken into Sunni, Alawite and Kurdish federal regions. Although decrease in the Alawites’ power and increase in the Sunnis’ strength is beneficial to Ankara, on the other side establishment of a Kurdish state could bring negative consequences for Turkey. This pushes Turkey to oppose a federal system of governing in Syria. In fact, Ankara strives after seeing a strong central Sunni government in Syria.

After the Syrian Kurds together with other ethnic groups inhabiting the Kurdish regions announced establishment of Rojava federal region, Turkey’s foreign ministry issued a statement, announcing that Ankara would not come to terms with this autonomous Kurdish region, adding that it would do its best to confront the move. The statement of the Turkish foreign ministry also maintained that federal system in Syria posed a serious threat to Turkey, and so Ankara would stand in front of it. In Turkey’s point of view, a federal system would not be successful in Syria, and so Ankara does its best to foil the Kurdish federalization move. The foreign ministry of Turkey also called on the world to stop these moves which aim at splitting Syria.

Generally, a look at Syria’s future scenarios shows that Turkey, whether the Syrian government survives or collapses, would receive the greatest loss and strategic challenges. Furthermore, Ankara does not benefit from partition of Syria and once Syria is splitted, Turkey suffers security problems. Meanwhile, Turkey only takes advantage from the Syrian crisis only if the moderate Syrian opposition groups rise to power in Damascus. But a close watch of the Syrian circumstances indicates that this scenario is very unlikely to happen in comparison to other possible scenarios. The likeliness of President Assad staying in power, at least in the present conditions, is more than his removal. On the other side, even if Damascus government collapses, the scenarios of Syria split and formation of a close-to-the-Salafists Sunni government are more likely than seizure of power by the Syrian moderate opposition which are close to Ankara.

By Alwaght

Source Article from http://theiranproject.com/blog/2016/06/06/turkey-vs-possible-scenarios-syria/

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