Their absence will quickly bring in an extra 2 -2.5 per cent, bringing Sarkozy
within striking distance of François
Hollande in round one (on April 22), Mr Cayrol believes.
Currently Mr Hollande is polling 30 per cent to Mr Sarkozy’s 25.5 per cent,
but the gap widens to almost 60-40 per cent in round two.
“Sarkozy’s strategy is to launch a new idea every day. He will be like a
veritable ferret – here, there and everywhere, trying to take control of the
debate. Today, Hollande leads the dance, people have got used to the idea he
will win and are receptive to his call for social justice. Never has this
theme been so important for the French.
Francois Holland presents Mr Sarkozy’s greatest challenge (Reuters)
“After a mediocre start, Hollande has run a good campaign since his first
major rally speech outside Paris last month.
“The greatest threat to a Hollande victory is appearing overconfident. He
mustn’t respond to the permanent provocation coming from Sarkozy’s new
proposals. Rather than trailing in their wake, he must show he is following
his own trajectory.
“Sarkozy, meanwhile, will try to break the status quo favorable to
Hollande with a cocktail of two key messages: I will get you out of this
economic crisis and defend traditional values like discipline, authority and
the family.”
However, he faces deep skepticism about the value of political pledges. “The
French now feel that promises are made to be broken and see spin everywhere,”
said Mr Cayrol.
To neuter that scepticism, he proposes handing back power to the people via
referendums on questions such as welfare reform and immigration – something
National Front candidate Marine Le Pen has long proposed.
Mr Cayrol said Mr Sarkozy’s promise to do likewise was to send a message to Le
Pen supporters that “I need you, and it’s you who decide”.
“He hopes if he uses this new type of moderate Right-wing populism, takes
a tough line on insecurity and immigration and appeals to their hostility to
the Left, even far-Right voters who currently say ‘never again Sarkozy’ will
end up backing him between the two rounds.”
However, there remains a large unknown: the true size of Miss Le Pen’s support
base – polls currently give her between 14 and 20 per cent. “We
just don’t know how high she can go,” said Mr Cayrol.
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