“Aside from the political consequences, Hamas has been afraid to side
with the Syrian people in case the regime took out [its displeasure] on the
hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees in Syria. But Haniya has
reasoned that the regime cannot afford now to open a new front against the
Palestinians,” said Dr Samir Awwad, an expert in Palestinian politics
based in the West Bank, adding, “Hamas knows that Assad has lost the
battle already.”
While Hamas has denied the closure of its Damascus headquarts, Mr Meshaal and
his aids have been absent from the Syrian capital for several months.
Following Friday’s announcement, it seems unlikely they will return.
Dr Awwad predicts Syria will stop short of expelling the Palestinian group,
only because it cannot afford to lose one of its very few allies left in the
region. Even if this proves to be the case, Mr Meshaal is placed awkwardly.
Under a deal proposed by the Qataris, a reconciled Palestinian government,
inclusive of both Fatah’s Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas chief Mr Meshaal, would be
welcomed into formal Arab diplomacy allowing the Hamas leadership to base
itself between Cairo, Amman and Dohar.
But many within the Hamas executive in Gaza – including key figures such as Mr
Haniya and the group’s co-founder Mahmoud al-Zahar – have taken issue with
the terms of this reconciliation, which would see Fatah-allied Mr Abbas act
as prime minister of a transitional united government.
Until this internal rift within Hamas is resolved and the stalled
reconciliation proceeds – or the political situation in Syria changes
dramatically – Mr Meshaal and the exiled Hamas leadership will be left
without a base.
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