Hillary “O’ Clinton” —Luck of the Irish?




Democrat presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, left, and Hillary Clinton, right, won some coin tosses to break ties in Iowa caucuses.

Democrat presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, left, and Hillary Clinton, right, won some coin tosses to break ties in Iowa caucuses.

                                                

After an incredibly close race, Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was declared winner in the Iowa caucuses: she beat out her top rival Bernie Sanders by the razor-thin margin of 49.9% of delegates to 49.6% (0.3 percent!).  The closeness of the contest caused some raised eyebrows, primarily because of the fact that a coin toss was the official method used to break several ties, and the rumor was that Hillary Clinton won every coin toss—six in a row!  Caucus-watchers were thus left to wonder if Hillary Clinton somehow possesses the proverbial “luck of the Irish”, though her ethnic heritage is mainly Welsh and English.

To what extent was Clinton’s success in the Iowa caucuses really due to “luck”?

The first important thing to note is that the Iowa Democrat Party caucusing process is a very complex one. A simplified version of the process is this: Precinct caucus goers’ votes are converted into delegates. These delegates are proportionally awarded to viable candidates; that is, to candidates who receive at least 15% of the total vote.  The slates of precinct delegates subsequently attend county conventions and select a contingency of delegates to attend the State Convention.  At the State Convention, a delegation is chosen to represent Iowa at the Democrat National Convention.

The need to employ the coin toss occurs at the precinct level when competing candidates receive an equal number of caucus goers’ votes, and the number of delegates to be proportionately divided among them turns out to be an odd number.  In such cases, the candidate that wins the coin toss will receive the extra delegate.  For example: if there were 7 delegates to be apportioned, each candidate would be equally awarded 3 of the 7 delegates, and the remaining delegate would be awarded to the winner of the coin toss. The net result would be 4 delegates awarded to the coin-toss winner and 3 delegates to the other candidate.

It is difficult to determine exactly how many of the precincts required a coin toss, or how many coin tosses Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton won.  However, in the 50% or more of the caucuses where the Microsoft App was used for reporting, Sanders won five coin tosses to Clinton’s one.  In the case of the other caucuses, some observers report that Clinton won six of seven tosses.  One conclusion that might be confidently drawn is that the rumor that Clinton won six coin tosses in succession is inaccurate.  But even if she won only one or two more coin tosses than did Sanders, luck could be said to be a determining factor in her narrow Iowa victory.               

 

 

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Hillary “O’ Clinton” —Luck of the Irish?




Democrat presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, left, and Hillary Clinton, right, won some coin tosses to break ties in Iowa caucuses.

Democrat presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, left, and Hillary Clinton, right, won some coin tosses to break ties in Iowa caucuses.

                                                

After an incredibly close race, Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was declared winner in the Iowa caucuses: she beat out her top rival Bernie Sanders by the razor-thin margin of 49.9% of delegates to 49.6% (0.3 percent!).  The closeness of the contest caused some raised eyebrows, primarily because of the fact that a coin toss was the official method used to break several ties, and the rumor was that Hillary Clinton won every coin toss—six in a row!  Caucus-watchers were thus left to wonder if Hillary Clinton somehow possesses the proverbial “luck of the Irish”, though her ethnic heritage is mainly Welsh and English.

To what extent was Clinton’s success in the Iowa caucuses really due to “luck”?

The first important thing to note is that the Iowa Democrat Party caucusing process is a very complex one. A simplified version of the process is this: Precinct caucus goers’ votes are converted into delegates. These delegates are proportionally awarded to viable candidates; that is, to candidates who receive at least 15% of the total vote.  The slates of precinct delegates subsequently attend county conventions and select a contingency of delegates to attend the State Convention.  At the State Convention, a delegation is chosen to represent Iowa at the Democrat National Convention.

The need to employ the coin toss occurs at the precinct level when competing candidates receive an equal number of caucus goers’ votes, and the number of delegates to be proportionately divided among them turns out to be an odd number.  In such cases, the candidate that wins the coin toss will receive the extra delegate.  For example: if there were 7 delegates to be apportioned, each candidate would be equally awarded 3 of the 7 delegates, and the remaining delegate would be awarded to the winner of the coin toss. The net result would be 4 delegates awarded to the coin-toss winner and 3 delegates to the other candidate.

It is difficult to determine exactly how many of the precincts required a coin toss, or how many coin tosses Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton won.  However, in the 50% or more of the caucuses where the Microsoft App was used for reporting, Sanders won five coin tosses to Clinton’s one.  In the case of the other caucuses, some observers report that Clinton won six of seven tosses.  One conclusion that might be confidently drawn is that the rumor that Clinton won six coin tosses in succession is inaccurate.  But even if she won only one or two more coin tosses than did Sanders, luck could be said to be a determining factor in her narrow Iowa victory.               

 

 

Related Articles:

Source Article from http://politicalblindspot.com/hillary-o-clinton-luck-of-the-irish/

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply

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