Despite his frequent denunciations of the West, in private Mr Ahmadinejad is
more cautious about provoking open confrontation, fearing that any further
deterioration in relations would have a crippling impact on the Iranian
economy. Iran is suffering a severe economic crisis as a result of UN
sanctions imposed because of its nuclear programme, with the value of the
rial falling 20 per cent in the past month.
During his re-election campaign in 2009, Mr Ahmadinejad promised to revive the
country’s economic fortunes but he now complains that the supreme leader’s
policies are making this impossible.
A Western diplomat who has recently returned from Tehran said: “Iran is
experiencing a major power struggle between those, like the supreme leader,
who are totally opposed to any form of compromise with the West, and the
Iranian president, who wants to adopt a more pragmatic approach and avoid an
open confrontation with the West, which would only further damage Iran’s
fragile economy.”
Last week it was disclosed that President Barack Obama had sent a message to
Mr Khamenei through a “secret channel” warning him that any attempt by Iran
to close the Strait of Hormuz would be regarded as a “red line” by
Washington and result in military action.
In addition, the Pentagon has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf
and doubled the number of American troops based in Kuwait.
In an interview at the weekend, William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, warned
that Iran was likely to “become a greater crisis as 2012 goes on”.
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