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March 24th, 2021 
Awake Goy Update: The Israeli election appears to be deadlocked, judging by exit polls. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party has the upper hand with 31 or more seats, far more than the nearest competitor, per the polls, but the anti-Netanyahu parties have as many as 60 seats, or half the parliament.
Netanyahu called the election a “huge victory” for Likud and said that he would work on rightwing legislators from other parties to join his governing coalition in the days to come. He warned in a speech at 2:30 AM Israeli time that unless Israel forms a “stable rightwing” government, the country faces a fifth election in the space of 2-plus years.
The exit polls were revised throughout the night, and some commenters said there was no clear path for either side, Netanyahu or anti-Netanyahu, to form a governing coalition.
Yair Lapid, Netanyahu’s chief challenger, is second best with 18 seats in his Yesh Atid party, according to the exit polls, and in his speech tonight, he highlighted the controversial fact that Netanyahu depends on racists in the Kahanist party, Religious Zionism, to form a coalition. Religious Zionism seems to have done very well, with as many as 7 Knesset seats (the equivalent of the KKK electing a U.S. Senator, says one commenter).
Lapid promised to try to block Netanyahu’s ability to form such a government. Per Tal Schneider, Lapid said:
We shall wait for final results, but as of now Netanyahu is unable to form a government with Kahanists, the racists. I am talking with the leaders of the change bloc, we will do everything we can to establish a sane government
Commenters said that in days to come there will be a battle to draw legislators away from their parties to help form a right-centrist government under Lapid or a rightwing government under Netanyahu.
Three exit polls initially showed Netanyahu getting to 61 seats or more, according to i24 News. That includes eight likely seats of Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party. Bennett, a rightwinger, has been in Netanyahu’s coalition previously but has said he wants to replace Netanyahu as prime minister.
The Joint List of Palestinian parties had its worst showing in the last four elections, at an expected 9 seats. i24 reported that turnout among Palestinian voters was at only about 50 percent– surely because Palestinian voters feel marginalized by Jewish centrist parties that refused the Joint List’s support.
Original post: Israel is holding its fourth election in two years today, and the reports so far are of election weariness: Turnout is down significantly from the last election in May 2020, a trend that is seen as giving even more power to smaller parties. And the large number of absentee votes, an estimated 10 percent of the total, suggests that there will be no clear tally for several days.
At 8 PM Israeli time– 2 PM, EST– about 61 percent of the eligible voters had voted, which is down nearly 5 percent from the number who had voted by 8 o’clock last May.
Israeli leaders had urged voters to make this election definitive. But some commentators are already predicting a fifth election.
The turnout figure is believed to hurt the larger “mainstream” Zionist parties, such as Likud and Yesh Atid and New Hope, because their voters are viewed as more pragmatic, while voters for smaller parties are seen as impassioned and committed.
If this election follows form, that would give even more power to the likes of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, to act as kingmakers in the coalitions discussions that are sure to follow the election. Bennett has run a “brilliant” campaign and replaced Lieberman, who was the kingmaker of the last three elections, former ambassador Danny Ayalon said on i24 News. Bennett has pledged not to sit in a government with leading anti-Netanyahu alternative, Yair Lapid. But Bennett has also bashed Netanyahu repeatedly in the campaign. If Bennett can keep Netanyahu in power, he may demand a role as deputy prime minister or defense minister, Ayalon said.
Turnout has been even lower among the Palestinian population, i24 reported, causing an atmosphere of “fear” at the headquarters of the Joint Arab List, three Palestinian parties. Their legislative seats would be needed to end the Netanyahu era, and Lapid has said that he wants their support. Though to oust Netanyahu, Lapid would also need the support of a rightwing party led by Gideon Sa’ar, a former minister under Netanyahu, and likely of Naftali Bennett too, despite Bennett’s pledge.
Lapid sought to rally his centrist base by bashing Netanyahu for “racist, homophobic” leadership in recent days. Commenters said that Lapid had held off on such rhetoric during the campaign so as not to alienate rightwing voters, whom he will depend on.
The election results are sure to reinforce the understanding that Israeli Jewish society is rightwing. From Netanyahu to Sa’ar to Lieberman to Bennett, on to the racist Religious Zionist party and the ultra-orthodox parties as well, and the Islamist Ra’am party, the rightwing makes up 80 of 120 seats in recent polls. The left is at a mere 18 seats, most of them Palestinian.
One thing for certain, says Yoam Ettinger, a former Israeli diplomat speaking on i24, Israel’s next prime minister will be “100 percent pro-American,” and will reinforce the idea that Israel is the U.S.’s most dependable ally in the Middle East.
We’ll update this post when polls close, and as results come in.
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