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May 6th, 2012 
FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda The central bank won’t be quick to respond to a tight federal budget with another interest rate cut because the fiscal strategy will need the support of a “conga line” of independent MPs, an economic forecaster says.
Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson describes the chance of Treasurer Wayne Swan announcing his promised 2012/13 budget surplus on Tuesday as a “dead cert”.
But Mr Richardson said in his annual pre-budget analysis that even if the government was seeking a surplus, “it has got to get through a conga line of independents and the opposition before it can deliver it”.
“That means that if the Reserve Bank is to offset what the government does in the budget, it has to second guess the independents – not something we’d wish on our worst enemy,” he said.
As a result, Mr Richardson said there was no guarantee a 2012/13 surplus would actually invoke an extra interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank “any time soon”.
As it stands, Mr Richardson expects the treasurer’s task of returning a surplus to be even harder than he projected back in November in his mid-year budget review.
For 2011/12, the forecaster now expects the deficit to have deteriorated by $790 million to $37.9 billion, a relatively modest change to previous Treasury projections.
But for 2012/13, and before any policy announcements, the budget is expected to be in a $6.1 billion deficit, rather than a $1.5 billion surplus.
Mr Richardson said there were several factors that would come home to roost in 2012/13, not least the weakness in jobs and wages growth leaving the personal tax take $1.3 billion shy of official forecasts.
This deterioration also includes company profit and superannuation taxes being downgraded by $4.2 billion, while indirect consumer taxes are likely to be $600 million short because families aren’t shopping.
Mr Richardson said the economic recovery since the global financial crisis (GFC) had not seen a matching recovery in revenues.
Before the GFC, families were spending, generating taxes from GST, petrol and beer excises, and custom duty on imports, he said.
But now spending was dominated by companies as they invested a fortune in building new capacity that actually reduced taxes because of business tax concessions.
“That isn’t a criticism of the tax system,” Mr Richardson said.
“What it really means is that the mix in Australia’s economy has gone from being very tax friendly ahead of the global financial crisis to being less tax friendly today.”
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