On the Latest inter-Korean Escalation amid New Joint Military Exercises

SKR

Before the end of 2022 and especially before the beginning of autumn, the author expects a seasonal rise in tension on the Korean peninsula due to large-scale US and South Korean military exercises.

From August 22 to 25, 2022, the 54th nation-wide Ulchi exercise will be held in the ROK. The Ministry of Security and Public Administration said that some 4,000 organizations, including local administrations, government agencies and enterprises, would be involved in the exercise. A total of 480,000 people from some 4,000 city, county and district authorities, public institutions and other organizations across the country will take part in the exercise. The exercise was shortened during the COVID-19 pandemic, but this year it will be conducted in full.

The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise is held once a year throughout the country to practice emergency preparedness and to ensure protection of life and property of citizens in the event of a national emergency. It was first conducted in 1969, following a North Korean commando raid on the presidential residence in Seoul a year prior. This year’s program includes exercises to restore facilities, telecommunications and waterworks in the event of a North Korean missile attack, as well as an GPS anti-jamming exerciseParticipants will also be trained to locate improvised explosive devices in nuclear power plants, fight a fire at a semiconductor plant, repel an attack on an airport, repel a drone attack and maintain public order during a banking blackout.

Once the civil defense exercise is concluded, on August 22 the US and South Korea will launch the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise. They will test and assess the full operational control (FOC) capabilities of a future unified command, which will mark the 2nd stage (out of a total of three) in the process of rights transfer that will allow Seoul to take charge of the operational control of its own forces during wartime.

Unlike previous years, the parties will not limit themselves to a series of computer simulations, there’s going to hold field exercises, and since the Conservatives came to power it has become clear that this will be the case – the resumption of the formerly suspended format of exercise is the point where Washington and Seoul’s interests coincide. Being a pragmatist, Yoon Suk-yeol believes that the army should exercise regularly. In addition, Seoul has long intended to secure control of its army. So far, in the event of a military conflict, it will not be run by the Korean president as Commander-in-Chief, but by an American general, the head of the so-called Joint Chiefs of Staff. To regain command, the South Korean military must show that they are ready to tackle a large set of strategic objectives on their own, and this can only be done through regular exercises.

On July 13, the commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command, General Paul LaCamera, reminded that Seoul and Washington are only running computer simulations, while there’s urgency to launch real land, sea, air, cyberspace and space exercises.   On July 29, South Korean and United States Defense Ministers Lee Jong-sup and Lloyd Austin finally agreed on both the expanded scope of the exercise and its name. In a briefing to parliament, the ROK Ministry of National Defense stated that the Ulchi Freedom Shield would consist of three main parts: crisis management training, defence of the greater Seoul area, and a counter-attack.

This exercise format amounts to a revival of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, scrapped in 2018 under Moon Jae-in’s liberal administration.  Those were conducted under this same exact codename in the period from 2008 to 2018, but originally the combination of Ulchi and joint US-ROK military exercises was carried on since 1954, effectively making it “the oldest regular exercise in the world.”

North Korea has traditionally perceived exercises of this scale as a rehearsal of an invasion, and thus each time those were conducted they were accompanied by aggressive rhetoric and a display of force from the North. And while the South says it is only conducting defensive and counteroffensive drills, the North claims that an invasion of Pyongyang is rehearsed yet again, which will be preceded by a “decapitation operation” against the North Korean leadership and a large-scale landing operation.

On July 31, the North Korean media would heavily criticize the Ulchi Freedom Shield:  Pyongyang called them “a demonstration of the possible invasion of the DPRK,” “an unacceptable and dangerous provocation of a total nuclear war” and a “direct evidence of outright hostility towards Pyongyang,” whose main goal are the overthrow of its political leadership and the consequent regime change in the North.

Choe Jin, a deputy director of the Foreign Ministry-run think tank warned Washington and Seoul of “unprecedented” security challenges back in July if the allies fail to put an end to their habbit of putting military pressure on Pyongyang, including joint exercises and maneuvers. It’s been stressed time and again that North Korea perceives them to be a rehearsal of invasion, which puts the Korean peninsula on the brink of a shooting war. He also accused the US and the ROK of conspiring to deploy US strategic nuclear forces on the Peninsula during the August exercise.

To what extent is Choe right? The answer can be found in the events that took place in the recent months.

On July 11-14, the US and ROK Air Forces held a joint exercise involving, for the first time, modern F-35A fighters deployed by both countries. The maneuvers engaged a total of 30 different combat aircraft, including F-15K, KF-16, FA-50 and F-16.  According to the South Korean Air Force, the exercises included strike package and defensive counter-air operations, as well as airborne alert interdictions (XINT).

In mid-July, the ROK and the US held a joint military exercise involving 4,000 South Korean servicemen from the 51st Brigade 12th Division, 81st Brigade 28th Division, as well as 300 US servicemen from the 1st Armored Brigade. The allies fielded around 100 combat vehicles, ranging from tanks, armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers to attack helicopters and drones. It’s noteworthy that the “lethal components” of various US weapons systems had been replaced by a South Korean “multipurpose integrated laser targeting system,” so that scientific analysis of the training could be carried out.

On July 25, two military facilities in Icheon and Yangpyeong in Gyeonggi-do province hosted the largest exercise since the founding of the South Korean Air Force. During this exercise a massive number of helicopters simulated a scenario where they carried troops across the enemy line tasked with securing a target.

During the exercise, 16 Apache Attack Helicopters entered a designated area to identify and eliminate a potential threat, firing cannons and machine guns, performing sudden descents after vertical lift offs, a a maneuver intended to minimize exposure to hostile fire. Afterwards, 13 Black Hawk and 5 Chinook helicopters delivered a total of some two hundred troops and the necessary equipment to secure a site.

From July 25 to August 3, US Space Command together with ROK held a multinational space security exercise Global Sentinel. The training was attended by approximately 150 staff members from 25 countries.

The exercise focused on facilitating cooperation between the participating countries during operations aimed at improving space awareness and other security missions. South Korea has been taking part in these exercises since 2017.

From July 25 to 29, the annual civil-military exercise Hwarang was held in Jeollabuk-do province, involving the military, local authorities, police and firefighters. Such exercises are designed to test the country’s defense capabilities and disaster preparedness. Similar exercises were held in Busan and Ulsan in June.

On July 27 and 28, South Korean and US special forces conducted joint military exercises, “demonstrating firepower against evolving North Korean threats.” To promote this goal, Special Operations Command Korea (SOCKOR) produced pictures of live-fire exercises.

From July 31 to August 14, Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the US held a biennial Pacific Dragon joint exercise near Hawaii. The stated purpose of the exercise is to enhance allied cooperation in detecting, tracking and intercepting DPRK ballistic missiles.

From August 8 to 12,  the Hawaiian Islands hosted Fortune Guard 22, an exercise aimed at preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The US Pacific Command stated that a total of 21 countries will take part in it, including the ROK. The exercise program implies a range of activities, including intergovernmental cooperation, information sharing, mapping and maneuvering all aimed at preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Fortune Guard exercise has been held since 2014 with the goal of putting an end to the trafficking of WMO-related components.

From August 16 to 19, American and South Korean servicemen held an emergency response exercise as a preliminary phase of the Ulchi Freedom Shield. With the use of computer modelling, the allies have developed a plan of actions to prevent a crisis situation from escalating into full-fledged hostilities.

From August 21 to 29, the US Seventh Fleet Command will hold an international exercise, Pacific Vanguard 2022, off the coast of Guam. The participants will include naval forces of Australia, Canada, Japan, the ROK and the USA, who are to conduct live-fire exercises and practice establishing a no-fly perimiter. Two South Korean ships, Sejong the Great and Munmu the Great, will be dispatched to take part in the exercise. Pacific Vanguard exercises have been held since 2019. The ROK has been its participant for 4 years in a row.

What answer to those exercises can the North provide?

Experts assume that the DPRK may conduct a nuclear test or a missile test, and Lee Jong-sup warned that if the North launches a “direct” provocation, the South would “respond sternly in light of the right to self-defense.”

Another side of the situation is equally interesting. One important point to note: Yoon Suk-yeol’s government is about to unveil some kind of a bold plan for an inter-Korean settlement. There are rumors that Yoon is going to offer something beyond the standard “denuclearization first, economic aid later” package, and, as part of the same strategy, Seoul is going to lift a number of restrictions on viewing North Korean TV content. In such a situation, Pyongyang tends to raise the stakes in order to test the sincerity of its counterparts. And if after some tough action Seoul continues its course, it means that it is sincere in its intentions.

On the other hand, one should keep in mind that there are both pragmatists and classic conservatives in Yoon’s inner circle, and therefore the format of the exercises and even the subsequent escalation could become an element of domestic political games.

We can all only wait and see the course of the exercises and hope that the sides will refrain from provocations and take the existing tensions on the peninsula into account.

Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia, the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

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