Scottish independence undermines UK

An independence vote would have various consequences for Britain in terms of security, military and defense, economy, politics and diplomacy among other things.

The most pressing concern for British security interests is the implications of Scottish independence for Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

Given that the UK’s entire nuclear arsenal is located in Faslane and Coulport in Western Scotland, the Scottish government’s decisions will play an immense role in Britain’s nuclear policy.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been emphatic in their opposition to nuclear weapons being based in Scotland and they would seek to remove them after independence.

As the SNP manifesto suggests: “Our opposition to the Trident nuclear missile system and its planned replacement remains firm- there is no place for these weapons in Scotland”.

Meanwhile, the number of troops and Ministry of Defense (MoD) staff based in Scotland is due to rise to 20,000 over the next eight years, with many of the soldiers returning from the British base in Germany due to move north of the border.

But, the SNP says an independent government in Edinburgh would want its own Scottish Defense Force.

Faslane, on the River Clyde, was chosen as the home of the UK’s nuclear submarines in 1963. While the MoD says it provides 6,500 jobs and supports 3,500 more in the local economy, it has always been controversial.

Anti-nuclear protests have taken place there ever since and the SNP says a majority of Scotland’s MPs and MSPs oppose the nuclear facilities there.

Finding an alternative, secure deep-water site with access to the Atlantic at which to locate the UK nuclear arsenal would not be easy and could provoke a whole new controversy.

In terms of economy, as a pro-European party, the SNP favors joining the single currency, “when the conditions are right”.

An independent Scotland could expect to have more than 80 percent of the UK’s oil and gas revenue, subject to negotiation with the Westminster government.

The offshore industry delivers huge sums of tax money to the Treasury – possibly as much as £54 billion in the next six years – and wouldn’t be something it would be happy to give up lightly.

Billions of barrels of oil have been pumped from the North Sea since the mid-70s and it is believed between 25 and 30 billion could still be recovered over the next 40 years.

In terms of diplomacy, without doubt, Scottish independence would have serious consequences for the UK. A great deal of UK’s international prestige comes from its colonial, superpower past, and with Scottish independence, Britain will lose most of its prestige as an international player.

Furthermore, the UK, including Scotland, has a position in the UN Security Council, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Now, if Scotland is independent, it’s not clear what would happen to the seats the UK has in these international bodies and organizations.

And finally, an independent Scotland would raise many questions for Northern Ireland. Would the Union be as meaningful for Unionists without Scotland? And what if Wales followed and became an independent state? Could Northern Ireland be part of a smaller union with only England, or perhaps only Scotland? Could this lead to an United Ireland? Or could it possibly survive completely on its own?

The Scottish government in Edinburgh has said it wants the vote on independence to take place in autumn 2014, but the Westminster government says it wanted the referendum to go ahead “sooner rather than later”.

MOL/JR/HE

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