The delta variant reaches the West Bank

Pedestrians walk past a sign warning members of the public about the spread of coronavirus delta variant in Hounslow, West London, on June 1, 2021. (Photo: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images)

The Latest:

  • 343,129 Palestinians tested positive for COVID-19; 336,876 recoveries; 3,833 deaths
  • Of those who tested positive, 199,835 live in the West Bank, 114,453 live in Gaza, and 28,841 live in East Jerusalem
  • 842,067 Israelis tested positive for COVID-19; 833,600 recoveries; 6,429 deaths

The delta variant has reached the West Bank. While previous mutations of the coronavirus have caused waves of concern, none have been this contagious or dangerous in terms of delaying national reopening plans. It has already reached more than 90 countries since being detected in late 2020. In the U.S., Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week it was responsible for 20% of active cases. 

On Sunday, the Palestinian ministry of health began gene testing select lab samples of new COVID-19 cases in the West Bank and found two cases of the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India. On Wednesday more random samples were collected. Twenty (out of how many, we don’t know, that data wasn’t released) were positive for the mutation. 

The delta variant was found in Ramallah, al-Bireh, Jericho, al-Aghwar, Tulkarem, Hebron, Nablus, Salfit, Qalqilya, and outside of Jerusalem. 

The big picture: It’s challenging to understand just how far-reaching the delta variant already is. On Thursday less than 2,500 laboratory tests were conducted in the West Bank and Gaza. With swabs that low, and limited to only those with symptoms and in the case of Gaza those with symptoms who are being treated in a hospital, we aren’t going to understand the impact until patients seek treatment in numbers that inundate healthcare workers. 

It was only a few months ago that ICUs were over 100% capacity, and that sprouted from fairly similar rates of infection.

So far the Palestinian Minister of Health Mai al-Kaila has urged sign-ups for vaccine appointments, although she told reporters that not all of the vaccines in the Palestinian arsenal protect against the delta variant. She cautioned, getting inoculated could make the difference between a severe onset or “mild symptoms.”

On Thursday she announced 509,712, Palestinians had received vaccines including 368,532 who received the two doses. Of those who were given at least one jab, 433,815 live in the West Bank, and 75,897 live in Gaza. 

Palestinian students stand outside their school after completing the final high school exam in Gaza City on June 24, 2021. (Photo: Atia Darwish/APA Images)
Palestinian students stand outside their school after completing the final high school exam in Gaza City on June 24, 2021. (Photo: Atia Darwish/APA Images)

Delta twice as contagious as earlier strains

To understand more about the spread of this strain and how it could potentially impact the health infrastructure, we looked at research published in late May by the UK’s infectious disease task force. The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group, or SPI-M-O, found the delta variant hovers around 40-60% more contagious than the initial strain of the novel coronavirus. 

In five of seven regions across England, there were 40% more cases of the delta mutation than other strains. 

“There are clear indications from many sources that this variant has some degree of reduced vaccine efficacy,” the group reported, warning, “disentangling any transmission advantage from this or reinfection potential in real time is not straightforward.” 

When scientists in the UK examined the epidemic on a national level, they noticed something profound: the overall COVID-19 rate had a “relatively flat trajectory,” yet, infections from non-delta strains were decreasing, and by a lot. This paradox was created because the delta strain had sustained “exponential growth,” thus propping up the rate of infection to a plateau. Instead of the pandemic winding down, it was gearing up for another, more intense and somewhat vaccine-resistant, wave.

“The decreasing epidemic of [the original coronavirus strain] has masked the rise of delta,” the paper said.  What’s more, researchers reported delta had “a doubling time of approximately nine days in England.”

It’s no secret that Gaza and the West Bank have substantially less stringent closures than the UK and a less robust healthcare system. We’ll keep following this story and update you when we know more. That’s it for this week, stay safe.

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