G20 leaders fear second meltdown

The prospect of a second credit crisis to rival the “once-in-a-lifetime”
economic meltdown of 2008 and 2009 is now a real possibility. Back then,
global leaders were able to agree on a global rescue package, worth hundreds
of billions of dollars, which helped to shore up the banks and kick-start
world trade. But this time there are significant barriers to history being
repeated, leaving the eurozone facing a defining few weeks that could, in
David Cameron’s words, determine its “make-up or break-up”.

One of the biggest problems is that world leaders will begin meeting this
afternoon without a clear sense of how the Greek election results will
impact on the formation of a new coalition government – or even if this is
possible.

The ultimate winner of the elections will be given up to three days to form a
new government. Exit polls last night indicated that this role will narrowly
fall to the New Democracy party, which, at least, supports the principle of
the austerity measures imposed on Greece as the price of an international
bail-out.

However, New Democracy would have to form a coalition with at least one other
party, probably former rivals Pasok, making for a very fragile
administration.

A sizeable number of voters, indeed more than at the previous elections in
May, have backed parties against the austerity measures – which have
included a cut in the minimum wage, an increase in VAT and swingeing cuts to
public spending. About 46 per cent of voters backed Syriza, a coalition
party of Left-wingers, and other groups which have opposed the terms of the
bail-out.

Therefore, whichever parties manage to form a coalition will inevitably
attempt to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s international bail-out, worth
more than €200 billion. This process may expose major fault lines between
France and Germany, which now threaten to undermine the entire basis of the
EU.

Germany is thought to favour only a slight watering-down in the terms of the
bail-out – probably by lengthening the period of the Greek austerity
programme which would allow a new government to reduce the severity of cuts
initially.

However, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is unlikely to agree to a more
fundamental rewriting of the bail-out deal. It is feared that if the Greek
deal were effectively reopened, other countries which have agreed to harsh
austerity programmes, including Spain, Portugal and Ireland, would demand
new terms. The entire EU-wide austerity programme could quickly collapse,
causing panic in the financial markets.

Mrs Merkel is already facing mounting calls for a referendum in Germany if any
more German money is put at risk elsewhere in the eurozone. Since the onset
of the debt crisis two years ago, repeated opinion polls have shown that a
majority of Germans regret exchanging the ­mark for the euro.

The new socialist administration in France, led by François Hollande, is
backing a relaxation of some of the austerity programmes. The French
government is advocating a European-wide “growth” plan to boost the economy.
The funding for such a scheme would be from so-called Eurobonds which would
effectively be underwritten by the Germans.

Discussions have also been held about central banks coordinating action today
to pump money into the global economy if this becomes necessary. However,
superpowers such as America and China are unlikely to agree to provide extra
money for the IMF that could be used to bypass the eurozone.

Today a solution to the crisis seems little closer than when leaders left the
last G20 summit. The Government believes that it may take a Greek euro exit
to focus German minds. They may not have long to wait.

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