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June 29th, 2012 
FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda
Option one: it can establish a policy of positive, fair mediation between
various Palestinian factions and Israel, which proved successful in the last
eighteen months following Mubarak’s departure. It could also provide
logistical and moral support to the Hamas government in Gaza, but with
established red lines that prohibit infiltration through Sinai to Israel. It
seems that this is the option currently preferred by the military, and Morsi
will probably not change it much. However, this option would place the
Muslim Brotherhood on a collision course with its “brothers” in Gaza. The
Palestinians who cheered Morsi the Big Brother won’t be happy to see him
turn a blind eye to the military crackdown on militants in Sinai or the
arrest of infiltrators from Gaza. Even if Hamas agreed and understood the
Brotherhood’s delicate situation, would the Islamic Jihad and other militant
factions understand and appreciate it?
Option two: Morsi’s Egypt might try to regain its old patron status to meet
the expectations of many Palestinian groups that won’t accept less from the
new Egypt than what Syria onced offered them: financial and logistical
support and even weapons supplies, a non-starter if Morsi wants to maintain
the treaty. That would definitely lead to a direct confrontation with
Israel.
The survival of the treaty would depend on how Morsi’s Egypt controls the
security situation in Sinai, and how he will handle the “brothers” in Gaza,
a conundrum for a group that built its reputation on the dream of liberating
Jerusalem.
For now, Morsi will probably continue the mediation policy and if these
efforts fail, he is likely to blame the military and security establishment.
He also might use the situation in Gaza to turn the general public further
and further against the junta. Another card, Morsi might play, involve
subtle, hostile actions: freezing contact with Israeli officials, cutting
the remaining economic links, and stopping Israeli tourists from entering
Sinai without visa. However, this would be a dangerous game; on one hand, it might boost Morsi’s popularity and conceal his Mubarak-style approach to
Gaza, but on the other hand, it would deteriorate the relationship with
Israel, which in turn would limit Egypt’s ability as a mediator.
The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel has been in critical condition for
quiet some times; it is crucial for President Morsi to think carefully
before his next move. Under his rule, Egypt will have to choose between
being a mediator or a patron, and it can’t be both. Flirting with subtle
hostility is dangerous, even reckless, in a country keen to repair its
damaged economy. Many in Egypt still remember the days of wartime rations
and they don’t want to see those days again.
Stuck between their “utopian” dreams and the dystopian reality, the
ruling Muslim Brotherhood may struggle to maintain the elusive treaty, a
treaty it doesn’t really don’t want, but must keep in force. Sooner or
later, the Brotherhood may discover that it can’t operate under two
contradictory policies at once, and it will be forced to choose between
dreams and reality. It is unknown whether the treaty will survive, but what
is certain is that even if Egypt under Morsi’s leadership can maintain the
treaty, the peace is gone, and it won’t be back for a long time.
Nervana Mahmoud is a doctor, blogger and writer on Middle East issues. you
can follow her on Twitter @Nervana_1
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