Jew World Order

WHAT would it take for Labor to turn back to Kevin Rudd? And how would his leadership Mark II change things for the Government?

Many Labor MPs claim things could never get so bad they would be willing to go back to the future with the former prime minister.

But the idea of a comeback for Kevin from Queensland is slowly taking hold in the minds of some members of the Government.

As distasteful as such a move would be for many in the Labor caucus, with each new poll it is becoming an option they cannot ignore.

That some MPs are floating the idea shows how desperate the situation is for Labor.

To go back to Rudd would involve a major mea culpa. It would essentially mean the Government was saying everything it has done since it dumped its former leader in June last year was a mistake.

On the face of it, this would be an extraordinary admission that would invite voters to kick Labor out of office at the next election. But some Labor figures are starting to wonder whether such an audacious move might be their only hope of holding on to government.

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All the evidence from opinion polls is pointing in one direction for Labor – oblivion.

Rudd is streets ahead of Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader, with various polls finding he is two to three times as popular as the current Prime Minister.

A Nielsen poll published this week found Labor would surge to an election-winning lead if Rudd were returned to the leadership. The poll suggested Labor’s primary vote would jump from 27 per cent to 42 per cent if the party turned back to Rudd. Under this scenario, Labor would win an election by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, the poll found.

In a week in which Gillard has been forced to plead with the Opposition to save her asylum-seeker policy and introduce legislation for her widely unpopular carbon tax, it is the last thing she needs.

The contrast with Rudd could not be sharper. The former leader has just clocked up one million followers on his Twitter account – the largest of any politician by far and a sign of his growing popularity.

The irrepressible Rudd returned to work early this week after doctors gave him the all-clear to resume official duties after his heart surgery.

Today he’s in the US for security talks in San Francisco, along with Defence Minister Stephen Smith.

While he doesn’t appear to be doing anything to encourage the leadership speculation, he is certainly showing he has lost none of his energy and enthusiasm for public life.

The hatred for Rudd runs deep within the Labor caucus and many who turned against him would fear retribution if he were returned to power.

Certainly none of the main powerbrokers who corralled the numbers for Gillard’s rise to the leadership have much vested in helping him.

This would involve a major admission of fault on the part of those who led the charge against him. And it would seriously diminish the power of those Rudd has publicly labelled “factional thugsters”.

But if the polls continue in the way they are, there may come a point at which Labor MPs decide their only chance of self-preservation is to go back to Rudd.

Of course, the polls could be wrong: Labor may be headed for a drubbing regardless of who is leading.

A return to Rudd may only compound Labor’s woes and undermine the Government’s legitimacy through “revolving door” leadership.

Even if Labor were to get a poll boost with a surprise return to Rudd, there would be no guarantee this would last. As was already demonstrated when Labor made its last leadership switch, electoral honeymoons can be short-lived indeed.

Many of Gillard’s policy headaches have direct links to the agenda of the Rudd government, although these pains have been made worse by the contortions and backdowns such as the climate change citizens’ assembly and the series of failed destinations for offshore processing of asylum seekers.

The obvious thing for Labor to do if it went back to Rudd would be to head quickly to the polls.

Rudd would not necessarily need to call an election. Despite uncertainty about whether some of the Independents would continue to prop up a minority Labor government that was not led by Gillard, none of them has ruled this out.

But, under this hypothetical scenario, Rudd would most likely want a clean break. It would be a chance to cut ties with the Greens and Independents that continue to cause problems.

Like Gillard before him, Rudd would have to argue there were areas in which the Government had “lost its way” and dump measures like the carbon tax and Malaysia asylum seeker swap deal.

A Rudd return would cause ructions in the ALP’s power structures. It would be achieved by going over the head of factional powerbrokers and appealing directly to backbenchers in the same way he appears to be finding support with the general public.

It could also reignite leadership tensions within the Coalition if Tony Abbott appeared unable to adapt to the change of opponent.

The Opposition is already planning for such a game-changer. Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop has warned her colleagues to be ready for a snap election in case Labor returns to the Rudd fold.

Gillard’s supporters argue Labor’s problems will soon improve. The PM will have a “year of clear air” in 2012 once the carbon tax is in place and the asylum-seeker policy rescued, they say.

But such insistence also underlines the very real danger to Gillard if the polling does not improve.

Steven Scott is The Courier-Mail’s national political correspondent.