By
Ruth Sunderland
16:12 EST, 11 June 2012
|
01:58 EST, 12 June 2012
The sheer weight of events means we are in danger of becoming inured to the real import of what happened this weekend.
Spain, though it is often lumped together with the likes of Greece and Ireland, is not a peripheral country in the Eurozone, but its fourth largest economy and central to the success of the project, and with deep corporate and banking ties into the UK. As one leading Spanish writer put it this weekend: ‘if we are going to hell, we’ll meet you there.’
Madrid has not only been handed a bailout, but a bailout-lite – the first to come without stringent conditions attached.
Bailout: The euro is about to collapse because Spanish and Greek banks’ corporatism cannot sustain their current existence
The rationale for this is that it is a bailout of the Spanish cajas or savings banks, not the Spanish economy – a rather meaningless distinction as sovereigns and banks are inextricably linked and the rescue package will push up the government debt to GDP ratio to near 100pc by 2015. The bailout does not distinguish the banks from the sovereign, it yokes them closer together.
So was it worth throwing €100bn at the corrupt and collapsing cajas?
The markets, after an initial burst of euphoria, are already having doubts.
Fortunately, the UK was not on the hook for this one as the aid came from the eurozone’s own lifeboats and did not involve any IMF money, which would have implicated British taxpayers.
But anyone who thinks the bailout will really solve the problems of Spain or the Eurozone is as delusional as premier Mariano Rajoy appeared to be when he hailed it as a ‘triumph.’
Its greatest impact is that by handing over money without full-scale monitoring, it gives succour to the anti-austerity brigade, notably Alexis Tsiparis, the leader of the left-wing Syrizia party in Greece, likely to get a good showing in this weekend’s election.
In fairness to Rajoy, there is much truth in his contention that Spain was pursuing a strong austerity programme anyway, so to impose more conditions would have been de trop.
Such niceties are beyond the likes of French President Francois Hollande, however, who did well in the first round of Parliamentary elections, giving him too a stronger mandate to kick against austerity. No doubt Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus – also heading for a bailout if it can’t get more roubles from the Russkis – will join the bandwagon.
This weakens Angela Merkel and will intensify the pressure on her to cave in, putting her in an impossible position with her own voters as she faces resistance to her policies both from within and from the Social Democratic opposition.
Pain in Spain: By handing over money without full-scale monitoring, it gives succour to the anti-austerity brigade
And how long will it be before attention moves from Rome to Madrid? Mario Monti has been given credit for the simple reason he is Not Berlusconi, but the Italian economy is back in recession raising further doubts about the sustainability of its debt.
Critics of the single currency project like myself are often accused of willing its destruction for the satisfaction of being proved right. There is nothing I would like more than to be proved wrong: I would not wish that misery on our neighbours, and, since our economy is so interlinked with the continent, on ourselves. If only the grand dream was capable of withstanding reality.
I fear, though, that far from solving the problems of the Eurozone, the Spanish bailout has taken it a step closer to the abyss.
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embrace collapse NOW it is the best way out…… france is next 3 months left for euro in time for a september crash…germany will bailout on its terms then the trouble will start as austerity measures are enforcesd.
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FRIGHTENING FOR THE SLAVES IN SERFDOM!.
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Except for a few people crying in the wilderness, the enormity of the almost global financial crisis was either ignored or denied; this denial of reality is not helped by a euphoria whipped up by the jubilee celebrations and the Olympic Games, where money was no object. Personally, recently retired, austerity has not changed my life style, but ask me in 10 years’ time.
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The Eurozone needs to look at a different domino!
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the sad part is they are just digging themselves into even more debt, we all know from experience you can not borrow yourself out of debt, when you are in that deep the money just goes on interest payments, not only to cover or service the debt, but also on the interest you pay out for the new loan, which means bankers make money on both ends of the transaction, so its win win for the bankers, at the expense of the taxpayers.
iceland are doing very well, they wrote off the debt, traced the bankers and held their politicians to account…………………………………
why are greek and irish govts not doing the same, have they been sold out and tucked up?
the eu dream, you have to be asleep to be-lie-ve it.
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