Jew World Order

Last week, Evangelos Venizelos, who is running in the national elections as
Socialist Party leader, warned that “Parliament cannot become a place for
those nostalgic for fascism and Nazism. Golden Dawn is unabashedly nostalgic
for both. Founded in the early 1980s by sympathizers of the military
dictatorship that governed Greece from 1967 to 1974, Golden Dawn has always
espoused a neo-Nazi ideology. Its symbol clearly resembles the swastika, and
copies of “Mein Kampf” and books on the racial superiority of the Greeks are
on prominent display in its Athens headquarters.

00.01 President Barack Obama invited French president-elect Francois
Hollande to the White House later this month (AFP reports).

In a telephone call to congratulate Hollande on his election victory, Obama “indicated
that he looks forward to working closely with Mr Hollande and his government
on a range of shared economic and security challenges,” White House
spokesman Jay Carney said in a statement.

Obama and Hollande “each reaffirmed the important and enduring
alliance between the people of the United States and France,” the
statement read.

The US president is due to host the leaders of the Group of Eight rich
nation’s club at his Camp David retreat in Maryland between May 18-19,
followed by the NATO transatlantic alliance summit in Chicago on May 20-21.

In his call to Hollande, Obama “proposed that they meet beforehand at
the White House” for a bilateral meeting, Carney said.

00.00 A press motorcycist and his camera man following Hollande have
crashed and come off their bike near Le Bouget airport, pictures from
Reuters show.

23.45 Our victory has given people hope across Europe who want an end
to austerity, he tells the crowd.

He concludes: “Be happy. Be proud. Be generous. Be respectful. Be proud
to be French. Thank you. Thank you.”

One sign in the crowd reads “Retraite a 60 ans” – Retirement at 60.
There are lots of Irish flags and union banners.

The Marseillaise plays, followed by the campaign song “Le changement,
c’est maintenant”. He is joined on the stage by his partner and Parti
Socialist colleagues. They clap and dance.

Our man in Paris Henry Samuel tweets:

23.40 Hollande is now addressing the crowd at the Place de la Bastille. “I
don’t know if you can hear me well, but I have heard you; I have heard your
wish for change,” he says.

Some red flares are blazing. He thanks his supporters profusely.

“I know what many of you feel. Years and years of injuries and feeling
burnt. We have to repair and get people together,” he says.

He says with pride that after 31 years he is the successor to Francois
Mitterand, the last French socialist president.

“We are living through a great moment. We must make sure its victory is
not just revenge, rejection. No, no such thing. It must be a beautiful
victory which makes us happy and brings us together.”

He tells his supporters not to lose their energy; there is much to do and they
must devote themselves to the republic.

23.37 Hollande has won with 51.7 per cent of the vote after 99 per cent
of votes were counted, the Interior Ministry has just announced.

23.32 The Euro has fallen in Asian markets after the French and Greek
elections as investors question how Europe’s left-turn will impact on the
European debt crisis.

At 7:00 am in Tokyo (2200 GMT), the euro was at $1.3022, down from $1.3082 on
Friday at 2100 GMT in New York.

Roland Gribben reports in tomorrow’s paper: Markets
braced for shift away from austerity as Francois Hollande wins French
election

Financial markets are braced for a radical shift in economic policy and
fresh question marks over a eurozone break-up, as Francois Hollande moves
into the Elysee Palace on Monday as the first Socialist president of France
for 30 years.

A confrontation between the new president and Angela Merkel, Germany’s
chancellor, is also high on the markets’ worry list.

However leading economists believe Mr Hollande will attempt a damage
limitation exercise to avoid increasing turmoil in a eurozone facing further
upheavals, with the result of this weekend’s Greek election increasing
speculation about an eventual break-up of the fragile currency bloc.

Mr Hollande’s ‘farewell to austerity’ programme, which combines taxing the
rich, raising public spending and lowering the retirement age, has raised
the expectations of the French electorate about the end of the ‘Merkozy’
era.

23.25 European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso has spoken:

I know I can count on the convictions and personal commitment of Francois
Hollande to push European integration forward. We clearly have a common
objective: relaunching the European economy to generate durable growth. We
must now transform these aspirations into concrete action.

23.19 Across Europe, political
leaders are conceding the consensus of austerity has “shattered beyond
repair”, Bruno Waterfield reports.

François Hollande’s election threws down the gauntlet to Angela Merkel, the
German Chancellor, who has railroaded the eurozone into agreeing a new “fiskalpakt”
treaty enshrining Germany’s austerity doctrine.

The economic doctrine of austerity, to cut the burden of state spending to
free up the economy, has ruled supreme with the support all of Europe’s
leaders, the European Union and financial markets.

But political leaders were on Sunday night conceding the consensus had been
shattered beyond repair.

With Europe’s economies plunging further into recession and as unemployment
in the eurozone breaks record levels, voters demands for a new approach had
finally become to great to ignore.

The popular backlash to EU imposed austerity to the centrist New Democracy
and Socialist parties in Greece threatens the existence of the euro itself.

French officials in the defeated Sarkozy administration have predicted
economic chaos for highly indebted France, which owes most of its debt to
foreign investors.

23.10 Hollande has landed in Paris after addressing supporters in
Tulle. His motorcade, flanked by motorcycles, is heading to the Bastille to
address his supporters. It is being followed by a long string of motorbikes
carrying camera crews, swerving to avoid one another.

22.50 Bruno and Henry report Sarkozy is the 11th European leader to be
outsed by the debt crisis. Can anyone name the other ten? Drop me a line on
matthew.holehouse@telegraph.co.uk.

22.40 Tomorrow’s front page story: François
Hollande victory sets EU on course for turmoil, by Henry Samuel and
Bruno Waterfield in Paris.

François Hollande was elected the first Socialist president of France in more
than two decades on Sunday night, as French voters decisively rejected
Nicolas Sarkozy as the figurehead of austerity.

A parliamentary election in Greece delivered a second hammer blow to
Europe’s political order, with voters flocking to anti-austerity candidates
at the expense of the two traditional ruling parties.

The combination of both results was expected to upset markets and increase
pressure on the euro as investors today get their first chance to react to
the prospect of far-reaching uncertainty in key eurozone countries.

A €105 billion (£90 billion) bail-out deal reached with Europe to save the
Greek economy would be thrown into doubt in the weeks of political wrangling
expected to follow.

The effects in France were equally as momentous as those in Greece as Mr
Sarkozy was ousted from the Elysée after just one term in the worst setback
for the centre-Right for over 30 years.

The “silent majority” that Mr Sarkozy repeatedly swore would “submerge”
his Socialist rival and all those who predicted he stood no chance, failed
to speak up at the 11th hour.

“The French people have made their choice … François Hollande is the
president of France and he must be respected,” he said in a speech to
supporters.

“I wish him good luck, it’s going to be difficult.”

22.21 Hollande’s election is on tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph front page

22.18 AFP: Chancellor Angela Merkel congratulated Francois Hollande for
his victory in France’s presidential election and invited him to come to
Berlin as soon as possible, her spokesman said.

22.00 Elsewhere in Europe today the coalition for austerity is
splintering:

Serbia’s opposition populist nationalist party SNS has taken a lead
over the incumbant liberals, polling 24.7 per cent to 23.2 per cent. The
Socialists are in third place with 16.6 per cent of the vote nad will act as
kingmarkers.

Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right coalition lost power
in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, exit polls suggest.

Greece went to the polls. Anti-austerity parties won almost 60 per cent
of the vote. Neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn is set to enter parliament for the
first time since the end of the military junta in 1974, with 6.5-7.5 per
cent, making it the sixth-biggest party in the 300-seat chamber with some 20
MPs.

^{Golden Dawn leader Nikos Michaloliakos (right) speaks at a press
conference after winning seats in the Greek Parliament.}

21.45 David Cameron has congratulated Hollande.

“The Prime Minister called President-Elect Hollande this evening and
congratulated him on his victory,” Downing Street said in a statement.

“They both look forward to working very closely together in the future
and building on the very close relationship that already exists between the
UK and France.”

Cameron had an up and down relationship with Sarkozy. Together they went to
war in Libya against Col Gaddafi; but they rowed bitterly over the European
treaty negotiation – with Sarko apparently snubbing a Cameron handshake.

Ed Miliband has made hay of the fact that Cameron failed to meet Hollande when
he visited London. He said:

I congratulate Francois Hollande on his election as President of France. I
know from our conversations in London earlier this year and from his victory
speech tonight of his determination to help create a Europe of growth and
jobs, in a way that is responsible and sustainable. This new leadership is
sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity. And it matters to
Britain. IIn his own campaign, he has shown that the centre-left can offer
hope and win elections with a vision of a better, more equal and just world.
I look forward to working together with him in the months and years ahead.

The UK Labour Party and Hollande’s Parti Socialiste are sister parties within
the Party of European
Socialists.

21.10 More from Devorah Lauter, with the Sarkozy supporters at
the Mutualité building in Paris.

Tomorrow members of the UMP party will meet at their headquarters on the
rue de Vaugirard. One leading member of the party who could not provide his
name, said he thought the “transfer of power would happen quickly.”

Leaders in Sarkozy’s government passed through the crowd, thanking them,
and calling out “Legislatives!”.

Minister Nadine Morano reacted to Sarkozy’s farewell speech. “I thought it
was a very beautiful speech, with an improvised bit at the end, that showed
his generosity and love for France.” “The UMP will come back fighting, and
united,” she added.

Despite predictions, many here said they believed right up until the end
that Sarkozy would win.

When she heard the first estimated election results, Monique Vera, 60,
couldn’t hold back her tears as she stood holding her French flag. “I feel
like crying. I was really engaged in this campaign, and I knew it was close,
but I didn’t expect this. I believed until the end.”

“I’m afraid for my grandchildren, for the future, because there’s no
work here. France is sick. I’m disgusted,” she added.

A group of young men wearing “Copé for President” T-shirts ran through the
crowds shouting: “Don’t be discouraged! We’re not afraid!”

After the first poll results were given, a Belgian flag was raised outside,
amid Sarkozy supporters here, with the words, “Bienvenue Chez Nous”
understood to be an invitation to higher income earners fleeing high taxes.

Sarkozy supporters said they were particularly moved by his speech. “He was
real. And you could see how moved he was. I thought he was going to cry,”
said Fanny Weil, 18 years old, who watched him speak at the campaign
headquarters, and said the experience was an “emotional” one for her as
well.

^{Carla Bruni wipes away a tear as her husband addresses supporters}

20.45 That’s the Hollande speech over. Cue the music – not Things
Can Only Get Better, or whatever it is Cameron plays at party
conference, but Edith Piaf’s La
Vie En Rose on two accordions and a clarinet. Is French politics not
a delight?

^{Le jour de gloire est arrivé: Hollande addressed the socialist faithful}

20.30 More Hollande: “At the end of my presidency I will ask the
following question: have I progressed the cause of equality and furthered
youth to hold its place at the heart of the republic?”

There is a French dream, “a long march”, he says: “To give your
children a better life than your own.”

He adds: “I have confidence in France. I know it well.”

He says after his election in many European countries: “There was relief.
There was hope. The idea that finally austerity was not fatal, and it the
mission which is now my own that of giving to the European construction an
aspect of growth; a dream of a future. That is what I will be doing and
saying to my European partners, firstly to Germany.”

Some big buckets of patriotism. “I love my country. I love French people.
Between us there is a relationship that makes everything possible; it is
called trust.”

He thanks his supporters and his Departement.

He is joined on stage by his partner, Valerie Trierweiler.

20.23 Francois Hollande, the new President of the French Republic, has
arrived in the main square of his hometown of Tulle.

He tells the crowd France has voted for change.

He wishes to give a “republican salute” to Sarkozy who “deserves
all our respect”.

“A lot of people have been waiting for this moment for many years.
Others, young people, have never known such a victory. So many people have
been disappointed. Cruel memories. I am proud to give hope.”

He says to the “numerous” people who has not voted for him: “I
will be President for everyone.” There is only “one France, facing
the same destiny,” he says.

He lays out his social vision. “No child of the Republic will be
abandoned or discriminated against,” he says. Society is too divided,
he says. “The first duty of the President of the Republic is to unite
and to make each citizen participate in all the numerous, heavy changes: the
recovery, the reduction of our deficit, and the preservation of our social
model to give everyone equal access to public services.”

There must be an “ecological transition” and a “reorientation”
of Europe towards growth, he says.

20.15 Germany will work with France on a growth pact for Europe, Foreign
Minister Guido Westerwelle vowed (AFP reports.)

“We will work together on a growth pact” for the embattled European
economy, Westerwelle told reporters – referring to a key campaign theme for
Hollande that irked Berlin, which had placed more emphasis on austerity as a
way out of the crisis.

20.00 The bitter pill of defeat: some pictures of tearful
Sarkozy supporters coming through now.

19.55 Sarkozy indicated he would step back from front line politics but
would not retire, AFP notes. He told supporters:

In this new era, I will remain one of you, but my place will no longer be
the same. My engagement with the life of my country will now be different,
but time will never strain the bonds between us.

19.48 Anti-austerity triumphant: the British left is cheering
Hollande’s victory. From Twitter:

But Arab world expect Rime Allaf puts it all in context:

19.45 Benedict Brogan, our deputy editor, blogs: François
Hollande’s win tilts Europe to the left and leaves David Cameron isolated

George Osborne tried his best on Marr earlier to be positive about the
prospect of François Hollande in the Elysee, echoing the assurances from
socialist central that the new French president is not about to rip up the
European consensus on tackling debt and deficits. He underlined the Hollande
pledge to legislate for a balanced budget by 2017 (though Mr Hollande, it
should be pointed out has ruled out changing the constitution). The
Chancellor’s argument was that Mr Hollande is stressing growth, but is not
giving up on the need for discipline. It was his way of heading off attempts
by Labour to capitalise on Mr Hollande’s win.

But you just have to look at Twitter to see how the left is not only
cheering Mr Hollande but seeing his win – and his policies – as a victory
and an endorsement for Eds Miliband and Balls. For David Cameron, the loss
of his friend and a centre-right ally is bad news for his diplomacy in the
EU, but also because it gives the left in Britain a script to follow about
an unpopular government detached from the people by wealth and austerity.

19.24 Sarkozy is conceding defeat at his HQ in the Mutualité. He has
spoken to Hollande and wished him luck.

He is bitter. He says the choice is democratic and republican, and the
President must be respected. He was not respected in office. “I will
never be like those who have beat us,” he says. “From the bottom
of my heart I want France to succeed with the challenges it faces. It is
something much greater than us; France. This evening we must think
exclusively of France.”

He thanks the French people for choosing him and letting him lead for five
years. “Never will I forget this honour. In the life of a man presiding
the destiny of France, it is something I never will be able to forget.

He adds: “I have dedicated all my energy from the beginning. I tried to
do my best to protect French people.”

He thanks his voters. “I have committed myself wholly and fully but I
have not succeeded. I have not succeeded in convincing a majority of French
people.”

He says the “coalition forces against us” were “strong”.

“I carry full responsibility for this defeat,” he adds. “No!”
shout the crowd. “I have fought for values of responsibility and I am
not a man who does not take up his responsibility. I was the chief.”
Cheers.

“Never my dear compariots will I be able to return and give you back all
that you have given me.”

He adds: “Think of France. Think of French people.”

He says he is sad to have disappointed people, but adds of his campaign: “You
could not have given me a better present, a better picture of France. So let
us have a happy France, that does not bear any hatred, a France does not
give up, an open France, a France that does not consider his opponent as an
enemy… A France that knows that life is made of success and defeat.

He signs off with his hand on his heart: “You are the eternal France; I
love you; thank you.”

His supporters sing the Marseillaise.

19.13 Here’s the scene at the Place de la Bastille where Hollande
supporters are jubilant. It’s been 17 years since there was a Socialist in
the Elysee.

19.04 Markets blog @zerohedge has dubbed the deposed French president
‘Sarkophagus’. Zing.

The Hollande crowd appears to be singing the bass line to the White Stripes’ Seven
Nation Army. They booed as they caught sight of Sarkozy’s care on
the television.

The Sarkozy crowd has unveiled a banner reading ‘Welcome to Belgium’ –
probably a reference to the country’s political turmoil, big state and
failure to grapple with its debts. (I think; drop me an email if you know
better – matthew.holehouse@telegraph.co.uk).

Update: I’m indebted to all our readers who wrote in with a more
accurate explanation. Olivier Weber, London correspondent for Canal+, was
amongst the first with this:

‘Welcome to Belgium’ could be a reference to an exodus of wealthy French
people out of the country, scared by Hollande’s tax plans. Belgium is
popular with French tax exiles (so is London)

Hollande has proposed a tax of 75% on earnings over Euros 1m.

Update 2: Reader Marc Allen points out that a common device in French
comedy is to identify all things Belgian as being moronic and farcical.

Update 3: Nils von Hinten Reed, a partner at CEG Europe, emails:

Capital gains tax is zero on personal wealth. 1h 20 on Thalys from
Bruxelles Midi to Gare du Nord. Enough incentive for the really wealthy.

19.00 Voting has just closed and clock has run out on the French
state’s ban on reporting exit polls. No surprises – Harris Institute polling
calls it for Hollande by 51.9pc to 48.1pc.

Of course, most of France knew an hour ago due to word of mouth and social
media.

18.50 So who is Hollande? He has sought to portray himself as Mr
Normal, compared to ‘President Bling Bling’ with his supermodel wife. From
Reuters:

He told voters he would still take the train and do the family shopping if
elected. In a race marked more by Sarkozy fatigue than Hollande fervour, his
few concessions to fashion were to trade his jam-jar spectacles for designer
glasses and go on a strict diet that deprived him of chocolate cake and of
his double chin.

His partner Valerie Trierweiler also wants to stick to a simple life. She
relishes the already too-rare moments when the two share dinner on the sofa
in front of the television, even if, she says, he tends to use too much
butter in his cooking.

Hollande’s mother, a social worker who was very close to him and died in
2009, adored France’s last left-wing president, Francois Mitterrand. His
father, an eye and ear doctor, dabbled in far-right politics in the 1960s,
opposing France’s pullout from Algeria.

Trierweiler, interviewed by womens’ magazine Femme Actuelle days before
Sunday’s ballot, confided that one of his quirks in domestic life is that he
never closes the door behind him.

She even managed to turn that to his advantage, saying: “He never
closes the door to anyone, as he has nothing to hide.”

18.40 We take a call from Bruno Waterfield at the Bastille,
where 30-50,000 Hollande supporters have gathered for a victory rally.
French broadcasters by law are not allowed to reveal the result of polling
until 19.00 GMT, on pain of a 70,000 euro fine.

He says:

The polls are still open but the crowd are chanting “Hollande a gagné!”
– Hollande has won – and “Francois est Président”. Everyone
in France knows Hollande has won. Foreign media outlets are reporting it.
The Wall Street Journal reported it before the French media; it’s the worst
kept secret in French politics. Everyone knows Holland has won, but they are
not allowed to say so.

In the ultimate humiliation for the UMP, Sarkozy supporters garethered on
the Place de la Concorde for a rally. They were told to go home by the
police – but there were still two hours of polling left.

18.25 From AFP in Germany:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right coalition lost power in the
state of Schleswig-Holstein, first estimates showed Sunday, after a vote
that could presage national elections next year.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) scored 30.6 percent, according to ARD
public television, with her junior partners at the national level, the Free
Democrats (FDP), winning 8.3 percent – not enough to retain power in the
northern state.

The big winners on the night were the Pirates, an upstart party that has
shaken up the staid world of German politics with a campaign based on more
transparency in the political process and Internet freedom

Greece, France, now Germany – is the Europe-wide coalition for austerity
breaking up?

18.18 Sarkozy supporters outside the Mutualité are still waving flags
and singing the Marseillaise. Devorah Lauter reports:

The amphitheatre is filling up with Sarkozy supporters waving French flags.

Outside, more are gathering around security barriers to watch the action.
Anna, 38, says she still believes Sarkozy can win the election. “I’m
proud of what he’s done for the country,” she said. And about his
re-election, she added in English, “Yes we can! He’s a dynamic
president.”

18.12 The Wall Street Journal has called it for Hollande

French Socialist candidate François Hollande won Sunday’s presidential
run-off election, defeating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy after a hard-fought
campaign that pitted two radically different personalities against each
other, according to estimates of preliminary results seen by the Wall Street
Journal.

The ballot was set to continue until 8 p.m. local time in some large French
cities, but the samples of preliminary results show Mr. Hollande has
garnered between 52% and 53.3% of the votes. Mr. Sarkozy collected an
estimated 46.7% to 48%, according to the sample of results.

17.58 AFP have flashed that Hollande has won.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande won the French presidential election
on Sunday with between 52 and 53 percent of the vote, ousting right-wing
incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, according to estimates.

Joyful crowds were gathering in Hollande’s hometown of Tulle and in front
of Socialist headquarters in Paris, as rumours of the result spread more
than an hour before French media were legally permitted to publish results.

17.38 Some inventive mocking of Sarkozy and his supporters in the UMP
by French tweeters using the hashtag #radiolondres

^{This image is captioned: “Right now, at the Swiss border.”}

^{A parody of the slogans of the Occupy
movement, mocking Sarkozy’s poor polling.}

^{@edouardpluvieux tweeted this, writing: “To vote! Difficult choice.”}

^{Another Hollande backer supports the man they call ‘the blancmange’}

17.25 Le Soir, the Belgian paper, has called it for Hollande with 53
per cent of the vote, citing a well-informed source at the Parti Socialiste.

Three polls conducted in the day gave these results:

Harris Interactive: 53% Hollande – 47% Sarkozy

Sofres: 53% Hollande – 47% Sarkozy

Opinion Way: 52.5% Hollande – 47.5% Sarkozy

Le Soir cites a source at the Mutualité claiming Sarkozy’s UMP party has
cancelled a planned rally on the Place de la Concorde.

17.22 What lies in store for France if Hollande wins? More
austerity, and violence on the streets, Benedict Brogan warns.

Nervousness about what the future holds has reached deep into Mr Sarkozy’s
inner circle, too. One of his small group of close friends who gather around
the president for late-night drinks most weeks put it in the starkest terms
for me: “Economically, I want him to win because Hollande will be a disaster
for France. But for the sake of social stability, it is better if Sarkozy
loses.”

He recognised that the president has been a divisive figure, and that after
a decade in power for the Right the public is angry and has had enough. To
hear one of France’s wealthy elites whisper that letting the Left win would
avoid trouble and reduce tensions is to hear the aristocrats talk of
placating the mob.

Among the political classes of both Right and Left, two predictions are
being made: first, that Mr Hollande will win tomorrow. And second, that
within six months he will have disappointed those who elected him with a
series of economic U-turns that will drive them into the streets and into
violent confrontations with the state.

Then the crowds will once again return to the Bastille, but this time in
anger, not in celebration.

17.05 An update from Greece, which is holding a decisive general
election today as it grapples with an ongoing debt crisis. The main
conservative party, New Democracy, is on course to take 17-20 per
cent and will be the largest party but will lack a majority, according to
exit polls.

The far-left and far-right are on course to make big gains, with neo-Nazi
party Golden Dawn set to take seats for the first time in 40 years. Pasok,
the party in power when the debt crisis began,has seen its vote collapse and
could be reduced to around 14 per cent, down from 40 per cent a year ago.

17.00 A tweet a couple of days back from Vincent Kompany, the
Manchester City captain:

(He’s saying Hollande has good intentions and a positive attitude, whereas
Sarkozy sows fear and panic to win votes.)

16.50 More from Devorah Lauter at the Saint Nicolas du
Chardonnet Catholic church, Paris.

Denis Lemoine, 49, an airline worker, was godfather to the baby boy being
baptised Sunday afternoon, and a member of the church. He refused to vote in
either round of the presidential election.

“On the Right and on the Left, they’re all leeches, and they’ll all leech
you just the same,” he said, making a blood-sucking gesture on his arm.

“If we tell you, ‘you have a choice between cutting off your legs, or your
arms,’ what are you supposed to do?” he said, holding a bible in his hand as
he spoke. “Our country needs major reforms, and unfortunately the Right
didn’t dare to get rid of the welfare state, and the Left will reinforce it.”

Sarkozy campaign organizers said there was no symbolic reason, and only
technical reasons for placing the giant screen portrait of the president in
front of the church, where Sarkozy supporters will gather later tonight to
watch the election results.

However, Laurence Legras, 56, a Hollande supporter, was “stupefied” to see
Sarkozy’s giant portrait on her old street, and in front of the church of
Saint Nicolas du Chardonnet.

“That church is the city’s fundamentalist church, and it unites people who
are very, very to the Right. From my balcony across the street, I used to
see a lot of National Front propaganda on the church door. So for me, the
two go together, since Sarkozy is very clearly calling out to those who
didn’t vote for him the first round, meaning Le Pen’s 18 per cent.”

16.44 Turnout is high but not at record levels with three hours to go
before all voting stations shut, hitting 71.96 per cent at 5:00 pm (1500
GMT) according to interior ministry figures. It’s down on 75.11 per cent at
the same point five years ago. More than 46 million voters are eligible to
take part.

This tweet is doing the rounds this evening:

16.25 How
will the markets react to the ‘socialist hand-grenade’ Francois Hollande?
Louise Armistead, chief business correspondent, reports.

Mr Hollande has pledged to spend €20bn (£16.2bn), lower the retirement age,
and raise taxes on business and the rich. So that’s spending not austerity,
retrenchment not reform and anti-capitalist to boot.

“You are a little slanderer,” was Mr Sarkozy’s summation on Wednesday. And
that’s just what’s lined up for France.

Even in the chaos of the eurozone, Mr Hollande is feared as a political and
economic hand-grenade.

Mr Hollande has vowed to spend his first audience with Angela Merkel, the
German chancellor, demanding a re-write of her fiscal pact to insert growth
measures. (If you’re Ms Merkel, read “increase debt” measures.)

Last week, eurozone unemployment hit a record high, economic data pointed
towards recession, even in Germany, and the European Central Bank repeated
its insistence that it could not help. So Mr Hollande’s first point – that
the Merkozy solution isn’t working – cannot be dismissed. More strangely,
far from being dangerously radical, some of his economic policies are
beginning to sound positively mainstream.

16.18 More from Devorah Lauter in Paris:

France Forte activists and security personnel gathered outside the
Mutualité building this afternoon, and waited for the doors to open.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, one activist from the Loire region said
he had high hopes Sarkozy could win the race, but admitted it would be quite
an impressive turn around.

“I simply don’t believe in all the polls against Sarkozy, because so many
are published by the media, which is in the majority a leftist institution,”
he said. “This was a mean campaign,” he said, speaking of anti-Sarkozy
sentiment, and the fact that other presidential candidates who ran in the
first round of voting refused to back the president. “Among the eight
eliminated in the first round, none supported him,” he said.

He added: “Sarkozy needs more time to do what he’s been trying to do
for the economy…I think Sarkozy handled the crisis well, and we should thank
him today.”

“If Hollande is elected, there will be problems in the EU. The socialists
are the bad students; look at Greece and Spain.”

15.58 Leaders’ wives: here’s Carla
Bruni voting with Sarkozy today.

Meanwhile Francois Hollande was accompanied by his companion Valerie
Trierweiler, a journalist. His partner of 30 years was Segolene Royal,
the socialist leader who stood against Sarkozy in 2005, but they
split six years after his relationship with Trierweiler emerged.

“It’s going to be a long day,” Hollande told reporters gathered to
watch him vote. “It’s up to the French people to decide if it’s going
to be a good day,” he said.

15.56 Our man in Paris Henry Samuel tweets:

15.48 What could have been: here’s former IMF chief and would-be
socialist candidate Dominique Strauss-Kahn casting his vote.

He was a front-runner for presidential candidate. Last
week he faced the prospect of being charged with gang rape.

15.35 The last odds from Ladbrokes:

Francois Hollande: 1/8

Nicolas Sarkozy: 9/2

On Sarkozy taking over 47% of the vote it’s 8/13, and 6/5 of him taking under
6/5.

If you’re taking the Eurostar to watch the victory rally tonight, don’t forget
to dress correctly:

15.08 In the first round Francois Hollande took 28.63% of the
vote, while Nicolas Sarkozy took 27.18%. The winner of today’s poll depends
on who can carve up the result of the other eight candidates. This is what
the polls say will happen.

Marine Le Pen, Front National

The far right candidate took 17.9% of the vote, but has refused to back either
of the “Siamese twins”, Sarkozy and Hollande, in the second round.
She told supporters to vote “freely and according to your conscience.”
Sarkozy has scrambled to capture her vote. IPSOS polling suggests 54% of her
supporters will back Sarkozy, while 14% will vote tactically for Hollande in
order to bring down Sarkozy and plunge the UMP into turmoil.

^{Marine Le Pen}

Francois Bayrou, Movement Democrate

The centrist took 9.13% of the vote. It’s a tranche keenly sought-after by the
candidates, and Bayrou has backed Hollande. But IPSOS say 40% of his
supporters will go to Sarkozy and 34% will back Hollande.

^{Francois Bayrou}

The left

France’s left-wing votes are likely to swing behind Hollande. Jean-Luc
Melenchon, of the Front de Gauche, won 11.11% of the vote in the first
round. He called on his supporters to back Hollande – and 80% say they will
do so, according to polls, with just 3% backing Sarkozy and 17% undecided.
The Green candidate, Eva Joly, took 2.3% of the vote, and has also swung
behind Hollande.

^{Jean-Luc Melenchon}

15.06 Here’s a video: French voters go to the
polls

15.01 Polling stations in Marseille were vandalised overnight. Locks
and doors were bolted and two block walls erected in the entrances to the
local primary school used as a polling station.

Bruno Gilles, the mayor of the 4th and 5th districts of the city, said he did
not “want to jump to conclusions” but noted the area backed the
UMP, Sarkozy’s party.

14.55 From Devorah Lauter at the Mutualité building, in Paris’s
5th arrondissment, where Sarkozy will make his post-result speech.

A massive screen with Sarkozy’s France Forte campaign poster has been set
up near the Mutualité building, on rue Monge right in front of the
ultra-conservative Catholic church, Saint Nicolas du Chardonnet. A group of
young adults has gathered after mass to watch the results.

Charles, a 25 year old asset manager and regular worshipper said he voted
for Marine Le Pen in the first round.

“We are not fooled by Sarkozy’s chase after Le Pen’s votes,” he
said, adding Sarkozy’s record showed “too much tolerance” toward
immigrants.

He said the the president tried to appear tougher on the issue “to
flirt with Le Pen’s supporters.”

“Sarkozy has talked big about immigration, but those are mostly just
words,” he said.

Still, Charles voted for Sarkozy in today’s second round ballot. “I
don’t want a spineless France, one run by Hollande. I think he’ll ruin our
country…even though he tried to appear stronger on television platforms.”

14.25 An update from Bruno Waterfield:

François Hollande had timeout for a leisurely lunch at a restaurant in
Tulle, his homebase.

He started with a terrine of duck before tucking into a fillet of beef with
foie gras sauce and fried apples. He had had strawberries for dessert.
Washed down with wine and mineral water.

^{Pleased to eat you: Francois Hollande greets diners before having lunch in
Tulle.}

The tension of a vote that is being billed as too close to call was all too
much for one voter. An 86 year old man died shortly after casting his vote
in Joux, a small town in the Rhône region in southern France. He collapsed
immediately after putting his ballot in the box and emergency workers were
unable to resuscitate him.

14.08 Those in London are not alone. Hollande beat Sarkozy by about
half a million votes in the first round. He told supporters in a Toulouse
rally on Thursday: “Victory is within our grasp!”

Polls released Friday and Thursday show the gap between the candidates
shrinking but results still solidly in Hollande’s favor.

A poll by the BVA agency shows 52.5 percent support for Hollande and 47.5
percent for Sarkozy. A poll by the agency CSA shows 53 percent for Hollande
and 47 percent for Sarkozy.

For both polling agencies, that was the smallest spread registered in the
campaign, which a few months ago saw polls predicting Hollande winning by a
crushing 60 percent to Sarkozy’s 40.

The margin of error on each poll was plus or minus 2-3 percent. BVA questioned
2,161 people by telephone Thursday. CSA questioned 1,123 people by telephone
Thursday.

The polls were carried out after the candidates’ only debate Wednesday night,
which Sarkozy had hoped would be the knockout blow he needed.

13.50 The majority of French citizens casting their votes in London
today chose Francois Hollande, Andrew Hough reports.

Voting at the Lycee Francais Charles de Gaulle on Cromwell Street, south
Kensington, many French citizens felt “change” was needed, so
voted for socialist Hollande ahead of current French president Nicolas
Sarkozy.

Serge Wadjie, who lives in Lewisham, south east London, said: “I voted
for Francois Hollande because I want a change in the current system in
France.

“It’s good we have a chance to vote from England as it motivates
people to come here and try to make a difference.”

The 45-year-old architect, originally from Paris, added: “I have
family in France and I want to help them. It’s still my country and I think
Hollande is going to change it for the better.”

There are more than 70,000 French nationals on the consular electoral list
in Britain, with two polling stations in London as well as about a dozen
cities including Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow.

An estimated 300,000 to 350,000 French nationals live in London out of the
city’s total population of more than eight million, but only around a fifth
are registered to vote in the presidential election in their homeland.

Retired teacher Claude Cribben, 61, of south London, said: “I voted
for Hollande as we need a change and I want to see what he can come up with.

“I hope he can follow through on the things he’s said and promised,
especially when he claimed he was going to employ 60,000 more teachers.”

Claire Charlotte, 30, a banker living in Kensington, west London, said: “I
voted for Hollande because his policies are better than Sarkozy’s.

“I think France needs a shake up to get it back to the great country
it was before.

“I’ve lived in England for two years now, but I’m a French citizen who
wants to see France thrive. I just hope if Hollande gets in, he delivers all
he has promised.”

But Francois Smithe, 29, a waiter living in Chiswick, west London, voted
for Sarkozy. “Hollande would probably drive France back to the 1950’s
as he is stuck in some time warp.

^{Children wait for their parents to vote at Lycee Francais Charles de
Gaulle, London}

13.35 Bruno Waterfield in Paris says the police operation ahead
of tonight’s celebrations gives a clue to the likely winner.

As the polling stations opened in France a heavy police presence and plenty
of Portaloos on Place de la Bastille showed that a victory for François
Hollande and defeat for Nicolas Sarkozy is the assumption for city planners.

“Le changement c’est maintenant” or “change is now” is the confident slogan
on the banners that went up Socialist headquarters on Rue de Solferino, an
optimism that the police and Parisian authorities seemed to share.

French CRS riot police and municipal workers were out in force on Bastille
on Sunday as the French presidential Jour-J or D-Day began cold, grey and
wet in Paris after a night of torrential rain.

Bastille, the site of the uprising where the French revolution began in
1789 and the heart of radical Republican France, will be the place where
Socialist supporters will gather to celebrate the victory of Mr Hollande.

In stark contrast, Place de la Concorde, a few hundred yards further West
along the Seine where President Sarkozy exulted at his victory in 2007, was
empty, without any signs of the major police operation being undertaken in
anticipation of a Socialist victory.

Council workers making preparation for the Parti Socialiste celebration on
Bastille said one sure sign that the authorities were banking on a triumph
for Mr Hollande was the large number of rented portable toilets.

“These Portaloos cost money and we’re unloading truckload after truckload
of them,” said Marcel, a contract worker driving a forklift. “You don’t
order this many toilets unless you’re serious.”

As well as the portable toilets, a heavy police presence, with riot
officers outside banks or official building in the vicinity of Bastille,
indicated a major operation underway. “This is where we expect the crowds,”
said one police officer, who refused to be drawn on whether that was a
prediction of a victory for the left.

There was not a single portable toilet to be seen on Concorde, just the
usual crowds of drifting tourists. The only police operation in sight was a
response to road accident nearby on the other side of the river, the Rive
Gauche.

But a French riot police officer guarding a building near the Bastille
claimed that in the event of a victory for President Sarkozy the forces of
law and order would be needed elsewhere – in the tough immigrant banlieues
or suburbs of Paris.

“If Sarkozy wins then the police will not be concerned with a celebration
at Concorde, or the disappointment here, most of us will be concentrated
where the trouble will be in outer Paris,” he said.

13.25 Let’s round up today’s election coverage in the Sunday
Telegraph.

Kim
Willsher profiles Francois Hollande, the ambitious ‘Mr Wobbly man’

Asked, aged 15, what he wanted to be in life, the earnest adolescent
replied: “President of the Republic”. He was not smiling, nor was
he joking.

Mr Hollande has spent 42 years trying. His career as a civil servant, a
councillor a technocrat, a Socialist Party apparatchik and MP has been the
classic route to the ultimate position of head of the French state. He has
all the qualifications, if little of the experience, to be president.

For less well known than his overt ambition is the fact that his attempts
to reach his goal have been thwarted at almost every turn over the last
three decades in politics, during which he has been ignored, sidelined,
passed over, betrayed and insulted – even, on occasions, by those closest to
him.

At no time was this more humiliating than in the run up to the 2007
presidential election, when his own partner Ségolène Royal, mother of his
four children, effectively stabbed him in the back.

But each time he has suffered defeats and disappointments, Mr Hollande has
bounced back, and done so with a smile.

Martin Vander Weyer, the business editor of the Spectator, reports
the markets have not taken fright at the prospect of Hollande’s election –
despite calling the world of finance “my real adversary” on the
stump.

Investors began to shun French government bonds in early April as Hollande
drew ahead, but a €7 billion issue last week met a warmer reception: France
is still able to borrow 10-year money at below 3 per cent, compared to a new
low of 1.6 per cent for safe-haven Germany, around 2 per cent for the UK and
4.7 per cent for deeply troubled Spain. Greek bond yields are,
unsurprisingly, off the chart.

Those comparisons suggest that the international bond market has decided,
for now, to give Hollande the benefit of the doubt. That’s not a compliment
to his statesmanship or to his sparkle – in terms of government experience,
he’s the equivalent of a county council leader who happens to have clout at
party HQ, and on the charisma scale he makes Ed Miliband look exciting.

Rather, the market has persuaded itself that Hollande is more moderate than
he tried to sound on the stump, and that his “growth agenda” of
tax grabs and public-sector job schemes will rapidly be neutralised by force
of fiscal circumstance.

13.00 Turnout by midday today in this is two-horse race is low at
30.66% – down from 2007’s level of 34.11%.

Francois Hollande, incumbant Nicolas Sarkozy and candidates
knocked out in the first round voted this morning.

Marine Le Pen, candidate for the Front National had promised to
cast a blank ballot. She won 17.9% of the vote in the first round – the
party’s highest ever share.

In France ‘le vote blanc’ is accomplished by putting a blank white sheet of
paper in the ballot box.

“I clearly said I will ‘vote blanc’, I do not usually change my minds,”
she said. “The two remaining candidates are political Siamese twins, so
I do not expect much from the result.”

^{Socialist candidate Francois Hollande votes in Tulles, France.}

^{UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy votes in Paris}

^{Front National candidate Marine Le Pen votes im Henin-Beaumont, northern
France.}

^{Jean-Luc
Melenchon, French Front de Gauche leader and candidate,
casts his ballot. He took 11.1% of the vote and endorsed Hollande.}

12.30 Good afternoon and welcome to the Daily Telegraph’s live
coverage of the second round of the French
Presidential elections with Henry Samuel, Bruno Waterfield and
Devorah Lauter in Paris and the Telegraph foreign team in London.

Get in touch with your news, views and pictures at
matthew.holehouse@telegraph.co.uk, or on Twitter via @mattholehouse.