Jobs outlook better, but …

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People walk past a sign leading to a job center in Rosemead, east of downtown of Los Angeles in the San Gabriel Valley in California.

The last piece of the puzzle in this month’s economic data is expected to confirm what the others have shown so far: the U.S. job machine is sputtering along at a pace that isn’t putting American back to work fast enough.

Friday’s jobs report is projected to show a modest pickup in growth from last month’s dismal report, which showed the jobless rate inching upward again. Forecasters are looking for job growth of about 125,000 in June, almost twice the pace of growth in May, when a paltry 6,900 new jobs were added. But that would still badly lag monthly gains of over 250,000 seen at the start of the year.

If job growth for June comes in as expected, that could be enough to nudge the unemployment rate back down to 8.1 percent, from 8.2 percent in May, according to Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics.

“But without a major acceleration in GDP growth, the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall significantly further,” he said.

That pickup in economic growth appears unlikely, at least in the short term.

As Europe’s economy weakened and China’s once-robust growth cooled, the U.S. economy expanded by 1.9 percent in the first quarter, which was a sharp slowdown from the 3 percent annual pace posted in the final three months of last year.

Most of that growth came from auto production, as consumers replaced worn-out cars with newer, more efficient models. Excluding autos, first quarter GDP grew by just 0.7 percent.

“Given that domestic growth is being generated by the autos sector, as we go into the second quarter, a pretty soft outcome looks likely,” said Jeremy Lawson, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Auto sales, which rose strongly in June after a weak showing the prior month, won’t generate enough growth to power the economy without an expanding manufacturing sector and rising consumer spending.

A widely watched survey of the nation’s purchasing managers reported Monday that the manufacturing sector shrank for the first time in three years in June.

Some economists had hoped to see a pickup in consumer spending following a sharp drop in gasoline prices this spring. The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has fallen roughly 15 percent since April.

But consumer spending, as reported by the government, was flat in May for the first time in six months amid tepid demand for motor vehicles. Major retailers reported lower sales figures in April and in May.

“We’re seeing consumer spending come off the boil a bit over the last few months. That’s to be expected, given uncertainty across the board and the troubling headlines we’ve seen,” said Omer Esiner, chief analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

The global economic slowdown has also cut into demand for American products overseas. Though the U.S. economy is less reliant on exports than its trading competitors, weak global demand hurt corporate profits in the first quarter. After-tax corporate profits fell by 5.7 percent in the first quarter – the first drop since the fourth quarter of 2008.

“It highlights that the U.S. is not immune from the weakness in the rest of the world. Corporate profits are likely to remain under pressure, a development that is unlikely to help the employment outlook,” said Lawson.

There have been some rays of hope recently in the bottoming of the U.S. housing market, where both prices and sales volumes have begun to stage something of a comeback. That could bring some new jobs to the construction and real estate industries, both hard hit by the housing collapse. But the pace of home sales and construction is still far below levels expected three years after the end of a recession.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that new claims for jobless benefits dropped by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 374,000. And payrolls processor ADP released a report showing that private businesses added a higher-than-expected 176,000 jobs in June.   

Though economists expect the weak recovery to continue this year, consumers are getting gloomier about their own outlook. For the fourth month in a row, consumer confidence fell in June. The Conference Board’s labor index fell to the lowest level since January.

“Consumer confidence is digging deeper into recession territory as many Americans see their job prospects dim, their household net worth take a beating, and the European debt crises send jitters through the equity markets,” said IHS Global Insight economist Yinbin Li.

“I’m short the euro,” says Jim Iuorio, Director; TJM Institutional Services, discussing the ECB’s rate-cut decision, and weighing in on how U.S. jobs numbers will impact the markets.

Some 16 percent of survey respondents expect business conditions will be worse six months from now.

That kind of pessimism takes a toll on hiring, especially among small business owners, according to Martin Mucci, CEO of Paychex, which manages company payrolls.

“Consumer confidence is a big issue,” he said. “Whether you want to open that next small business or additional location, when consumer confidence is flat you’re not sure if somebody will buy your product. That keeps people a little bit hesitant to open up that new business.” 

Major retailers such as Macy’s, Costco, Kohl’s and Target reported disappointing sales in June, as worries about the economy and high unemployment took their toll on consumer sentiment. But off-price chains had a better showing as shoppers looked for bargains.

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