Trump Stumbles in March 5 Primaries

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Trump Stumbles in March 5 Primaries

March 6th, 2016

Awake Goy

The Republican Party establishment is firmly closing ranks against populist would-be presidential nominee Donald Trump, and, by using a combination of caucus and “closed primary” contests, dealt him a significant setback in yesterday’s party primaries.

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Although Trump won two of the four states which voted, his victories were slim and his two defeats were solid—and main rival Ted Cruz picked up more delegates on the night to place him well within striking distance of Trump’s totals.

This means that the official Republican delegate totals after the March 5 primaries are: Trump 378, Cruz 295, Rubio 123, and Kasich 34. To win the nomination, a candidate must secure at least 1,237 delegates.

The voting systems in yesterday’s Republican primaries were all heavily weighted in favor of the party establishment—which hates Trump passionately.

Trump, whose campaign largely relies on first-time and previously disaffected white non-voters, paid the price for the failure of his huge popular support not translating into dedicated longstanding party activists.

As a result, Cruz took sixty-four delegates, and Trump forty-nine in yesterday’s contests. Third-placed Marco Rubio took thirteen, and the last contender in the race, John Kasich, took seven delegates.

The Kansas Republican party operates its primary on a “caucus” and a “closed primary” system.

A “caucus” system is where meetings are arranged by either the state or political party to take place at a certain place and time. Most often, only registered voters can participate in a caucus, and they are limited to the caucus of the party with which they are affiliated.

States that use the caucus system are Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Iowa.

A “closed primary” system is one where people may vote in a party’s primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day. This means that independents cannot participate—and this is where Trump’s largest group of supporters lies.

Fifteen states use closed primary systems: Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

There are also “semi-closed” primaries, where, as in closed primaries, registered party members can vote only in their own party’s primary.

Semi-closed systems, however, allow unaffiliated voters to participate as well. Depending on the state, independents either make their choice of party primary privately, inside the voting booth, or publicly, by registering with any party on Election Day.

Thirteen states have semi-closed primaries: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

What this means is that if Trump supporters—which are made up of huge numbers of previously uninvolved people—are not actively registered as Republican Party supporters, they cannot vote at all in closed primary contests, and in semi-closed contests can only vote in certain areas.

This automatically places establishment party candidates—such as Cruz—in a leading position.

With other closed primary contests coming up—particularly in Florida—it can be expected that Trump’s lead will diminish further, and those who have predicted an easy Trump victory would be well advised to rein in their expectations.

It is by no means certain that Trump will even win the Republican nomination, particularly if, as expected, Rubio drops out after the next set of primaries.

A narrowing of the field makes Trump’s delegate count even shakier: there is no hard and fast rule laid down for delegates who have been selected for candidates who had dropped out. They are still sent to the Republican National Convention, but, with their candidate not on the final voting list, have a free choice for whom they can vote.

The likelihood of Rubio delegates coalescing behind Trump is small, and most are likely to plump for Cruz. As of March 5, this would instantly place Cruz in the lead—and this is before states with large numbers of delegates (such as California) have even voted.

Finally, the Republican Party establishment is already discussing holding what is called a “brokered convention” or even an outside independent Republican candidate.

A brokered convention occurs when no single candidate wins the required 1,237 delegates needed to clinch a nomination, and instead a third candidate is introduced at the convention as a compromise which is designed to be acceptable to all sides. This would, of course, automatically exclude Trump.

An independent Republican campaign is also being seriously considered should Trump win the nomination, set up with the sole aim of drawing away Republican votes to deny him a victory in the presidential election itself.

The only way, therefore, that Trump can maintain and enhance his current slim lead in delegates is for his supporters in the remaining primary states to ensure that they are registered as Republicans in time to vote.

Failing that, or a brokered convention, Trump’s only other alternative may be to consider an independent run himself, with all the dangers that entails.

No matter which way the cookie crumbles, the 2016 race is far from over.

The complete results from the March 5, 2016 Republican primaries are as follows:

Kansas

Ted Cruz (won) 24 delegates, 48.2 percent, 35,207 votes.

Donald Trump 9 delegates, 23.3 percent, 17,062 votes.

Marco Rubio 6 delegates, 16.7 percent, 12,189 votes.

John Kasich 1 delegate, 10.7 percent, 7,795 votes.

Kentucky

Donald Trump (won) 16 delegates, 35.9 percent, 82,493 votes.

Ted Cruz 14 delegates, 31.6 percent, 72,503 votes.

Marco Rubio 7 delegates, 16.4 percent, 37,579 votes.

John Kasich 6 delegates, 14.4 percent, 33,134 votes.