A brutal crackdown may be coming for Russia’s renewed opposition

The ultimate outcome is, of course, unpredictable, but the shelf-life of
Putinism – which requires the maintenance of rising standards of living in
exchange for a quiescent population – seems to be running out. The internal
contradictions of a pseudo-democratic authoritarian system, both dependent
on and increasingly paralyzed by endemic corruption, have dented the
populist, personal legitimacy which held the whole operation together;
what’s more, Russians of various backgrounds – entrepreneurial, aspiring and
struggling – are tiring of the obstacles and humiliations of that system.

If the opposition can survive the likely imprisonment of key leaders, resist
the siren song of Kremlin money and power, remain united under a broad
platform of reform and convince key elites to join their cause, a crackdown
could be much harder to sustain, and Putin could find himself in a very
difficult position. That is no small feat, and the situation looks likely to
get worse before it ever gets better. Indeed, there’s no question that Putin
retains the monopoly on power in Russia – but his “managed democracy” isn’t
likely to stay under the same management forever.

Julia Pettengill is the co-chair of the Russia Studies Centre at the Henry
Jackson Society, and author of The Russian Opposition: A Survey of Groups,
Individuals, Strategies and Prospects, published this week by the Henry
Jackson Society

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