Jew World Order

Instead of demanding Mr Assad’s resignation, this six-point plan calls for
peace talks, along with a ceasefire, the release of prisoners and open
access for aid agencies. Any negotiations would presumably be held between
the dictator and his enemies, meaning that the Annan plan implicitly
recognises Mr Assad’s right to represent his regime.

As such, the Annan proposals amount to the “biggest success so far” for Mr
Assad’s diplomacy, says Serhat Güvenc, associate professor of international
relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. “He has bought plenty of time
and he has reinvented himself as a player in the discussions about the
future of Syria.”

Any encounter with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the rebel movement fighting Mr
Assad’s regime, shows how this reversal has taken place. The guerrillas, who
are armed with nothing more than AK-47 assault rifles and the occasional
rocket-propelled grenade, freely admit the impossibility of standing up to
the eight armoured divisions and 220,000 men of Syria’s regular army.

Speaking from inside Syria, in a region once considered a rebel stronghold, an
FSA commander styling himself Safwan says: “The regime army is controlling
this area because it has tanks and rockets and large numbers of soldiers. If
we take a village, the regime army will come with more soldiers and take it
back.”

Safwan adds: “Three months ago, the Free Army was in control of this area. We
were close to the main town. But we pulled back because of lack of
ammunition.”

The shortage of everything – guns, grenades, heavy weapons, but mostly
ammunition – comes up in every conversation with an FSA fighter. In theory,
guerrillas carry 200 rounds per man, a pretty modest allocation given that
AK-47s get through that amount in 20 seconds of automatic fire.

In reality, however, the insurgents often go into battle with far less. Abdul
Razak al-Masri, the second-in-command of a unit of 25 men, says: “Every
officer has the numbers of the Kalashnikovs in his unit written down and the
amount of ammunition given to every man.” When a guerrilla is killed, he
adds, the first priority is to take back the AK-47 and whatever rounds may
remain in the dead man’s pockets before the regime’s forces close in.

Britain and France, constrained by a European Union arms embargo on Syria,
have ruled out giving weapons to the rebels. But Saudi Arabia and Qatar have
publicly promised to supply them.

So far, however, there is no sign of arms arriving. “They are just talking,
they are not giving weapons to the Free Army. On the ground, nothing
happens. It’s just political: they are making people optimistic for
nothing,” says Mr Masri.

Devoid of outside help, his unit claims to be entirely self-financing. Mr
Masri raised $10,000 by selling a house, one of his fighters sold a car,
while another disposed of his family’s land. One insurgent raised money for
weapons and ammunition by auctioning some sheep. “We fight for Allah and for
freedom,” adds Mr Masri, who met me inside Turkey. “We are sure that Allah
is with us.”

The Almighty might favour the FSA, but Syria’s mainstream opposition can be
less helpful. Last month, Tamam al-Sallom, an FSA fighter from near the city
of Hama, made a dangerous journey across the heavily guarded border into
Turkey.

His aim was to secure help from a conference of Syrian opposition parties
being held in Istanbul. Mr Sallom attended the gathering, but was offered
nothing more than $2,000 for his own benefit, something he contemptuously
refused. He will have to make a perilous return to Syria to rejoin his
comrades – and he will be empty-handed.

“The Syrian opposition are concerned for themselves and for their political
futures. They are living expensive lives with money that could go inside
Syria. But the people inside Syria are suffering and dying for this
revolution,” says Mr Sallom.

Burhan Ghalioun, leader of the Syrian National Council, the biggest alliance
of opposition parties, was allowed to address the “Friends of Syria”
conference in Istanbul last Sunday. Earlier, Britain pledged £500,000 to
help Mr Assad’s opponents, while Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state,
disclosed that America was already providing non-lethal equipment, notably
for communications.

But Mr Ghalioun steadfastly refused to make any specific requests on behalf of
the opposition when he held a press conference last Saturday. Later, he
offered a half-hearted plea for weapons for the FSA, only to be contradicted
by another figure in the pot pourri of Mr Assad’s exiled opponents.

Helping Syria’s bitterly divided opposition to become a coherent force is a
key priority of Western governments. Diplomats privately concede that
Syria’s regime has won itself more time – but they still predict that Mr
Assad will fall in the end.

The national economy is in crisis, suffering from the effects of sanctions,
isolation and an EU oil embargo. The army has recaptured territory,
particularly in Idlib province, and reimposed its authority on the cities,
but the offensive has neither eliminated the FSA nor ended the street
protests. Mr Assad has won a respite, but he will not be able to turn the
clock back to the era before the rebellion began and his dominance seemed
assured.

From Afghanistan to Kashmir, lightly armed guerrillas always suffer when a
regular army mounts a general offensive. Insurgencies are often cyclical,
with successful attacks followed by a lengthy period of setback and retreat.

But rebels can recover if they have three vital assets: a haven in a
neighbouring country, significant levels of popular support, and powerful
state sponsors. The FSA has all three, with Turkey providing a safe refuge
and Qatar and Saudi Arabia lined up to become the chief suppliers of weapons
– although it seems their effort has yet to begin. If and when it does
start, the rebels will probably be able to regroup successfully.

Still, Mr Assad has poured more sand into the hourglass measuring the months
before his downfall. The emerald valleys where Turkey and Syria meet will be
rocked by the sound of battle for some time to come.