Baillieu looking to budget surplus

The Victorian coalition swept to power on a promise to fix the state’s problems.

In anyone’s language, having the highest mainland unemployment rate in Australia is one very big problem that not only has implications for workers and their families but for Treasury number crunchers trying to balance the state’s books.

The government is giving conflicting messages about whether or not it will deliver its promised minimum $100 million when the state budget is released on Tuesday.

Payroll tax receipts will probably be down as a result of the higher than expected jobless rate – 5.8 per cent for March.

On Thursday, Treasurer Kim Wells appeared to be hinting at a deficit, largely thanks to the weak property market punching a hole in expected stamp duty revenue, and GST write-downs.

But a day later the premier said a surplus was an important part of delivering a responsible budget.

It will be the first deficit in Victoria since the Kennett era if the budget is in the red either this financial year or in 2012/13.

Under that scenario, the government would likely blame international factors outside of its control, such as the high Australian dollar, Victoria getting a raw deal under the formula used to divide the GST and a budget position inherited from Labor propped up by one-off commonwealth payments.

To achieve a surplus the government must either increase debt – as it did last year – raise taxes or sell off public assets.

The premier has indicated he isn’t adverse to selling state assets to fund construction projects, which in turn generate jobs.

But as recently as this week he said the sale of the Port of Melbourne, one of the largest state-owned assets, was not on the table.

Mr Wells has already promised the budget will contain investment in significant infrastructure projects.

As skilled workers head west to take advantage of the mining boom, business desperately wants a timetable for large projects here to boost confidence and create jobs.

One of those key projects is the East-West Link, which could take a decade to complete and involves an 18km road connecting the Eastern Freeway and the Western Ring Road, with connections including the Tullamarine Freeway, Port of Melbourne and Geelong Road.

The state government has asked Infrastructure Australia to provide $30 million over two years to carry out the next stage of planning for the link.

A key construction project it has already promised is the Monash Children’s Hospital in Melbourne’s southeast.

The government will need to lay out some serious cash to make good on its pledge after allocating just $8.5 million in last May’s budget to buy land and fund planning for the hospital.

The government’s commitment is to spend $250 million on the hospital over eight years – $60 million in its first term and $190 million in the second.

Mr Baillieu said on Friday the project remained on the government’s agenda but refused to provide details.

The treasurer has also left open the option of again culling public sector jobs.

Last December he announced 3600 administrative public sector jobs would be slashed over two years through voluntary redundancies and a recruitment freeze.

Another way the government may save funds is by not renewing programs that were due to lapse next financial year, such as the first home bonus.

The bonus is worth $13,000 for buyers of new homes in Melbourne worth less than $600,000 and $19,500 if the property is in a regional area.

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