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November 22nd, 2023 
Awake Goy 
In a striking revelation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—President Joe Biden’s flagship climate legislation—is under scrutiny for potentially enabling an upsurge in fossil fuel production. This scenario poses a stark contradiction to the Act’s intent of fostering a greener future.
Oil Change International (OCI), a prominent environmental advocacy group, recently unveiled an incisive analysis, revealing how the IRA, despite its advancements in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and batteries, could still fall short of the United States’ Paris Agreement goal. The United States, as the world’s largest historical emitter of fossil fuels, is under a global obligation to cut emissions more rapidly than the average.
The Rhodium Group’s climate modeling data, upon which OCI’s analysis is based, projects a disconcerting rise in domestic oil and gas production, contradicting the IRA’s environmental aspirations. According to OCI, the IRA could see a 7% increase in fossil gas production and a 13% rise in petroleum production by 2035. This uptick is alarming, considering the expected domestic decline in fossil fuel demand.
The report highlights a worrying trend: while domestic demand for fossil fuels is anticipated to decrease, the gap will likely be filled by soaring exports. This expansion will offset the environmental gains achieved domestically, essentially neutralizing the IRA’s positive impact. OCI’s analysis underscores the potential for the IRA to inadvertently bolster the fossil fuel industry, offering them a “massive escape hatch” to continue their operations.
The broader implications of this potential scenario are profound. Increased fossil fuel production and exports could significantly heighten pollution, especially in environmental justice communities – areas predominantly inhabited by Black, Brown, Indigenous, and low-income groups. These communities have historically borne the brunt of the fossil fuel industry’s environmental impacts, facing heightened risks of respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, and other health issues linked to fossil fuel extraction and processing.
OCI’s analysis is a stark reminder of the complex dynamics at play in the transition to a clean energy future. While the IRA marks a substantial step towards climate action, it may inadvertently perpetuate the very issues it seeks to resolve. This situation illustrates the intricate balance between advancing renewable energy initiatives and mitigating the entrenched interests of the fossil fuel industry.
The report calls for more comprehensive measures beyond the IRA, including phasing out fossil fuel exports, ending fossil fuel leasing on federal lands, and halting approvals for new fossil fuel infrastructure. These actions are crucial to ensure that the IRA’s investments in clean energy translate into tangible environmental benefits, rather than being undermined by continued fossil fuel expansion.
As the world’s attention turns to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), the United States, under Biden’s leadership, faces a pivotal moment. The nation’s approach to addressing the climate crisis, especially in light of OCI’s findings, will be under global scrutiny. The question remains: will the Biden administration adjust its course to align with its climate commitments, or will the legacy of the IRA be marred by an inadvertent boost to the fossil fuel sector?
This critical juncture presents an opportunity for decisive action. The Biden administration must reconcile the IRA’s potential pitfalls with its climate goals to truly spearhead a sustainable and just transition to a greener future. The health of our planet and the well-being of vulnerable communities depend on it.
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