Dollar Lays Anchor As QE3 Speculation Takes Over

John Kicklighter
The Street
August 24, 2011

The fundamental fires are raging; but the dollar and broader markets will struggle for direction going forward as the possibility of QE3 adoption by the close of the week petrifies the speculative masses. We could already see the influence that this uncertain but very important event has over the markets through the opening session of the new trading week. For the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar), the potentially dominant fundamental event would lead the benchmark to its smallest range since July 25 th . This adds another layer of frustration for greenback traders (bullish and bearish) who have seen the currency trade one period of congestion for another. For risk appetite trends, the same fear-derived inaction was present in speculative positioning. The SP 500 Index put in for a highly suspect rally through the morning hours of the New York session that was completely reversed through the close and was accompanied by notably-restrained levels of volume in the meantime. These are the trading conditions we should expect going forward: troubled trends, tempered volume and high volatility.

  • A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Why is the market anchored when there is such heavy speculation surrounding a market-defining event? It would stand to reason that the building expectations for a third quantitative easing program (QE3) would push the market into a strong trend. However, there is a difference between forecasts and positioning. While the call for another round of stimulus from the Federal Reserve may be growing; the masses are distinctly aware of what happens should the central bank leave market participants empty handed. Once again, we are witnessing the balance between probabilities and the influence different scenarios can have over the markets. In this case, while a large contingent of the market believes that the policy authority has little option aside from expanding its support; they realize that the positive impact on confidence and positioning is likely very limited. In contrast, the fallout from disappointing those that are growing dependent on outside support is so great that it would be taking a major risk to position against such a scenario.

Will Fed Chairman Bernanke use this forum to announce QE3 or not? That will be the question that keeps the dollar and underlying risk appetite frozen.

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5 Responses to “Dollar Lays Anchor As QE3 Speculation Takes Over”

  1. Quick!!! the good ship ‘Economy’ is sinking fast, plug another body into the hole and hope the water outside disappears before we go under and drown.

  2. HOW TO PROFIT LIKE THE ULTRA-RICH DURING TIMES OF ECONOMIC CHAOS!

  3. BILDERBERG 2011 MEETINGS: Economic Collapse – Imminent Global Financial Crisis and U.S. Dollar Collapse!

  4. 7 PROVEN FACTS THAT THE WORLD IS HEADED FOR AN ECONOMIC APOCALYPSE IN 2012

  5. Lindsey Williams says the U.S. is going down, QE3 is going to happen……if it doesn’t it means we are winning the information war and its time to go for the jugular.

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