Foreign policy a critical test as Gillard’s stocks start to rise

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New chapter: The PM’s new media adviser once worked for British PM Tony Blair.
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JULIA Gillard is rising just a little in the polls, and trying to rise even more above the mud she’s stuck in.


The Prime Minister, who last October said she didn’t “have a passion for foreign affairs”, has decided to develop one in a hurry.

Over the past week, she’s welcomed the Queen, told Europe to get tough with its debt crisis and warned the world against putting up trade barriers.

This weekend, she’s playing host to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth, and next week she’s off to Cannes for the meeting of G20 leaders.

The week after that, she’s at the APEC meeting in Hawaii, mixing it with the leaders of China, Russia and the US. Days later, US President Barack Obama drops in here, before Ms Gillard zips to the East Asia Summit in Indonesia.

Most of this activity is dictated by diaries rather than strategy, but the opportunity is being seized.

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Ms Gillard flew to Perth for the Commonwealth meetings reportedly with 14 speeches already written. She’s made a meal of giving European countries financial advice none would pay any heed to, and had no need to be reminded of.

Indeed, one British MP at CHOGM, Liberal Democrat Lord Dholakia, loudly told several delegates that Ms Gillard had no authority or clout on the world stage.

And, true, her interventions have been mere platitudes: Commonwealth good, Europe troubled, America rising.

Her foreign knowledge is so shaky that she even pronounced Cannes as “Carns”.

But look out for more, because Ms Gillard is rising. The Gallup poll this week confirmed a slow rise from the Government’s deepest depths of two months ago, when it recorded just 41 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Today it’s 46 to the Coalition’s 54.

Part of the recovery is no doubt due to the Government suffering no fresh humiliation to match the bungling of the live cattle trade.

But some of it is also due to the Queen’s arrival and Ms Gillard’s eager changing of the topic and her presentation.

Labor has hoped that voters would in the long run forgive Ms Gillard for imposing her tax. That seems unlikely, but they might grant her some respect for being tough — even statesmanlike, to match the regal enunciation she took on with the leadership.

This is the trick that former British prime minister Tony Blair managed when he backed the war in Iraq.

Voters may have hated what he’d done, but they respected his tenacity, courage and statesman-like demeanour.

Oddly, Ms Gillard’s new media adviser, John McTernan, worked as Mr Blair’s political adviser, helping to present him as that statesman.

Now he can do the same with Ms Gillard, and the next month gives him plenty to work with.

For Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, Ms Gillard’s attempt to rise above the muck poses a challenge. Does he try to drag her back to the domestic? Does he follow her into foreign territory? Does he finally unveil his own vision for our future?

Of course, much will depend on Ms Gillard carrying all this off without making yet another trademark blunder. Her record in foreign matters has so far involved a string of humiliations, including the promising of a detention centre in East Timor that was news to its own Government.

But Ms Gillard is tough and on her last chance. She’ll make this Foreign Julia work or die trying.

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