IMF Prepared to Bless Yuan As Reserve Currency; Reason to Celebrate? Any Real Significance?


The above Top 10 Global Reserve Countries from Investopedia.

The top 10 totals $8.6 trillion out of $13 trillion in reserves. The table is a bit out of date. For example, China’s reserves are now estimated to be about $3.5 trillion.

It’s important to realize that China accumulated those $3.5 trillion in reserves by running a trade surplus with other countries, over the years, heavily US weighted, to that approximate number.

Similarly, most of Japan’s reserves represent the accumulated trade surplus Japan has with the US.

Does China have an accumulated trade deficit with the rest of the world to arrive at the $1 trillion reserve estimate of Standard Chartered Plc and AXA Investment Managers?

Mapping China’s Balance of Trade

Foreign Policy Magazine does an excellent job of Mapping the World’s Winners and Losers from China Trade

The deeper the red the bigger the trade deficit. China has a big trade surplus with US, Canada, and most of Europe with the exception of Germany.

China has a January-July trade deficit with Germany of about $1.8 billion, $768 million with Japan, and $3.2 billion with Australia.

Accumulate such totals for 10 years and one does not come close to $1 trillion.

Reason to Celebrate?

The reason China celebrates is not because there is any real significance  to the IMF’s move, but rather because China wants the prestige of being in the elite group of SDR reserve currencies.

SDR Concept Meaningless and Useless 

At $280 billion, SDRs have no global significance.

And since any currency is convertible to another instantaneously, at will, the notion of a “basket” as to having any significance is meaningless, regardless of the total!

People who discuss baskets of currencies overlook these obvious points, so expect to read a slew of nonsensical reports on the significance of this meaningless announcement.

Global Reserve Currency Discussion

The Yuan is not about to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

To become the world’s reserve currency, a country needs the largest, most liquid bond market in the world, a freely floating currency, free markets, and likely a stable, freely elected government.

China does not come close to meeting any requirement needed to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, let alone all of them.

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