Iran and world powers meet hoping to silence ‘drums of war’ with nuclear talks

Israel, Washington’s closest ally in the region, feels its very existence
would be under threat and has refused to rule out a pre-emptive strike on
Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Mr Obama took office in January 2009 offering a radical change in approach to
his predecessor, George W. Bush, in dealings with Iran, famously offering an “extended
hand” to Tehran if it “unclenched its fist.”

This failed, however, and Iran
has since dramatically expanded its programme, enriching uranium to purities
of 20 per cent, a level within spitting distance, technically speaking, of
the 90 per cent needed for a nuclear weapon.

As a result, talk of war has increased and the UN Security Council has imposed
more sanctions on Iran. Additional US and EU restrictions targeting Iran’s
oil sector are due to come into force from July 1.

But now, both sides “have walked up to the abyss and they have both
decided they don’t want to go down it,” said Trita Parsi, author of an
acclaimed book about Obama’s dealings with Iran called “A Single Roll
of the Dice.”

Obama, seeking re-election in November against a Republican challenger
accusing him of dawdling over Iran and keen to oil prices come down, is
impatient for results, while Iran is feeling the pinch from the sanctions.

The P5+1 – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Britain,
USA, France, China, Russia) and Germany – and Iran met in Istanbul in
mid-April and managed to find enough common ground to come to Baghdad, with
both sides hailing what they said was a fresh approach from the other.

But the Baghdad meeting will put these renewed efforts to the test as they
seek to set the parameters of what will be a lengthy and arduous process of
compromise requiring hitherto unseen amounts of patience and trust.

One key way for Iran to win the confidence of the P5+1 will be a suspension of
20-percent enrichment, while another would be Iran shipping its stockpiles
of enriched uranium abroad.

What might also help is Iran implementing the additional protocol (AP) of the
nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which allows for more intrusive
inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The IAEA also wants Iran to address allegations made in its November report
that until 2003, and possibly since, Tehran had a “structured programme”
of “activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive
device.”

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said on Tuesday after talks in Tehran that a deal on
ways to go over these accusations with the Iranians would be signed “quite
soon.”

The reaction of Western countries – and Israel – was cool, however, with White
House spokesman Jay Carney saying Washington “will make judgments about
Iran’s behaviour based on actions.”

Mark Hibbs, proliferation expert at the Carnegie Foundation for International
Peace, told AFP, “the negotiation isn’t over and done with until it’s
signed on the dotted line.”

But Iran will likely be disappointed in Baghdad if it expects sanctions relief
in return for any of these moves, with the most it can hope for being a
pledge – with strings attached – not to impose any more, diplomats said.

The Financial Times reported that Western powers are prepared to offer Iran an “oil
carrot” that would allow it to continue supplying crude to Asian
customers in exchange for certain guarantees.

It cited diplomats and oil executives as saying that Washington and Brussels
were likely to hold out the prospect of a possible suspension of an EU
insurance ban on ships carrying Iranian oil.

In any case, it is far from certain that any firm promises will be made by
either side in Baghdad, with one envoy playing down expectations by saying
that even if the talks go well, the results might not be “tangible.”

Source: AFP

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