‘Iran tensions shrapnel to reach Canada’

If an oil crisis over the potential closure of the Strait were to break out today, the Montreal Gazette reported, “It would cut the Canadian growth by about one-third, bringing the likelihood of higher unemployment and stagnating wages.”

In a recent conference, IHS Global Insight, a leading US-based energy consulting firm, announced that oil price may hit as high as USD 240 a barrel and the economic growth may fall as low as 25 percent if the strategic passageway is closed.

Describing the gravity of the scenario, IHS Global Insight’s chief economist Nariman Behravesh said the risk of an oil crisis is now the biggest danger facing the world’s economic growth.

Canada, Behravesh asserted, will see a painful 0.7 percent drop in the economic growth by the year following such a crisis.

The estimated blow to Canada’s growth, however, is only slightly lower than the 0.9 percent seen by the US, Japan and China, the report added.

“The worst damage, though, would hit the region that can least afford it – Europe – where there is a new recession under way and where growth could fall by 1.4 percent.”

The US and the European Union (EU) have imposed tough sanctions against Iran, since the beginning of 2012, to block the country’s oil exports and penalize other states for importing the Iranian crude.

They claim that Iran’s nuclear energy program includes a military component, ignoring the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has never been able to prove a military diversion in Iran’s nuclear energy program despite meticulous inspections.

Tehran has threatened that if Iran’s oil exports are cut, the country may take retaliatory steps, including the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which a daily total of 15-17 million barrels of oil pass.

HMV/PKH/IS

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