Mexican election raises fears in Washington

However, some experts suggest that the current government’s policy of
targeting cartel leaders has left the organisations in the hands of their
more ruthless and chaotic deputies, who may prove impossible to reign in.

“Many people are going to vote for [Mr Peña Nieto’s Institutional
Revolutionary Party] because they remember fondly the stable days when
governments worked quietly with the cartels and made side deals. But who do
you make a deal with now? The lieutenants are more fragmented and harder to
negotiate with,” said Diana Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institute.

The 45-year-old Mr Peña Nieto, who is married to one of the country’s most
popular soap opera actresses, is a young face on an old party. The PRI, once
described as “the perfect dictatorship”, ruled Mexico for 71 years until
finally being cast out in 2000 by an electorate exhausted after decades of
corruption, backroom deals and sometimes violence.

While the centrist candidate, who surrounds himself with Harvard- and
Oxford-educated advisors, has promised a renewed party, critics accuse him
of “old PRI” tactics, including an uncomfortably close relationship with
Televisa, Mexico’s largest television channel.

At a book fair last year, Mr Peña Nieto was asked to list some of the books
that had influenced his life. After several moments of faltering he
eventually said he had read “parts” of the Bible, an answer that led to him
being widely mocked.

But an American diplomatic source compared him to George W Bush during the
2000 election: an astute politician whose folksy manner means he is often
underestimated by opponents. “He has a quick mind and a fast repartee and he
understands people. He has political smarts,” they said.

While Mr Peña Nieto’s lead appears insurmountable polls show that around 14
per cent of the electorate, more than 10 million voters, have yet to make up
their minds.

Some fear that if the polls were to narrow at the last moment then Andres
Manuel López Obrador, the candidate of the Left-wing Party of the Democratic
Revolution (PRD), might stage a repeat of the mass protests he led after the
close 2006 elections. The demonstrations, attended by millions, virtually
shut down Mexico City for several weeks.

“It’s a possible scenario, we can’t discount it,” said one diplomat, adding
that the scale of Mr Peña Nieto’s lead would probably discourage Mr López
Obrador, who is currently running second.

Josefina Vázquez Mota, the conservative candidate from President Felipe
Calderón’s governing National Action Party, looks set to come third,
undermined by a poorly-run campaign and the machismo of Mexican politics.

She nearly fainted at one rally, drawing ridicule from male political
commentators.

“For women it isn’t so much a glass ceiling in Mexico as a steel one,” said Dr
Negroponte.

The presidential campaign has so far been spared the political violence that
marred previous elections. A leading candidate to become governor of a key
border state was gunned down just days before the 2010 elections.

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