Our big mistake was to assume we had won, says British ambassador to Afghanistan

Asked if foreign troops were now part of the problem, Sir William responded:
“Could be”, adding: “Afghans have never been comfortable with foreigners and
there comes a point — no matter how benign the intentions, and how much you
explain that this [ISAF] is not an occupying force, that we are here under a
UN mandate agreed with the Afghans — when you just outstay your welcome.”

But he said that ISAF now had a transition plan which, once complete in 2014,
would mean the Afghans will be fully responsible for the security of
Afghanistan.

He went on: “It will be very difficult for the Taliban to argue they are
fighting a foreign invader when the people on the streets are their own
police and army.”

The ambassador also said the role of British and ISAF troops had changed in
the past few years and was less about killing the Taliban and more about
“buying time”.

Sir William has risen to the top of the diplomatic service while shattering
the stereotypical image of the Eton-educated diplomat.

He was born in Edinburgh, speaks with a thick Scottish accent, is
grammar-school educated and went to Dundee University where he read history.
His language is often colourful and his off-the-record assessments of
certain public individuals are accompanied by howls of mischievous, throaty
laughter.

For the next two weeks he will be in charge of Britain’s biggest embassy
before retirement beckons. Despite his criticism of the Labour government’s
past failings, he believes the country will have a bright future providing
the West does not lose interest in Afghanistan’s development.

He added: “Afghanistan will be a mess for many years to come, but it will be
an improving mess”, he says, smiling. “There is one end of the scale where
we leave, the Afghans bicker amongst themselves, the Taliban don’t sign up
to negotiations and there is internal strife. I don’t think that’s the most
likely, but it is within the range of possibilities just as it is that the
Afghans get everything right.”

Pointing to past failures when the Russians were in charge, he adds: “The
reason why the Afghan National Army (ANA) fell apart in the 1990s was not
because the Russians had left, but because they had stopped paying and
that’s when the warlords came in and started fighting amongst themselves.

This latest plan has learnt the lessons of history. Under the Russians, the
ANA was a large force but lacked quality, so what we have to do is
concentrate on the quality because we have the numbers.

“You ask me what the biggest risk to the success of our strategy is? Well,
it’s us. It is the West being diverted somewhere else or the international
community not being prepared to ante up the money.”

But Sir William said that Afghanistan could not expect endless unconditional
funding from the international community. “It is important that Afghanistan
continues to make progress on reinforcing democratic institutions, having
free and fair elections, and there is no regression in human rights.

“So it’s not just, ‘Here’s a pile of money for 10 years’. We don’t expect
Afghanistan to have eliminated corruption, but we do expect to see some
improvements.”

He said the annual cost of running the Afghan security forces would be around
£2.62 billion, the vast majority of which would have to be found by Western
governments. Such decisions, he said, would be decided at the Nato summits
in Chicago and Tokyo later this year when members of the international
community disclose their future commitment to the development of the
country.

But Sir William also believes the Taliban must play a part in the country’s
future if peace is to stand any chance. He said: “Our preference is for the
Taliban to reintegrate and reconcile. Nobody has objected to the Taliban
becoming a political party, nobody has objected to the Taliban taking part
in politics or holding government positions or district-level positions if
that’s how it turns out.”

In two weeks’ time the Foreign Office will lose one of its most capable and
influential diplomats. But the pipe and slippers will have to wait. “I hope
to enter the private sector — I still have some time to give.” And the
inevitable biography? “That will have to wait for about five years.”

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