What lies ahead in the eurozone is terrifying

If Greek withdrawal happens, and that could be within days, it will be very
sudden. An emergency government in Athens will have to relaunch the drachma
and probably impose something close to martial law to keep order. The real
difficulty for Britain comes if there is then contagion, with panic
spreading to bigger European countries such as Spain and Italy, which are
also struggling with debts and uncompetitive economies. If that cannot be
contained, expect the return of the “credit crunch” across Europe, which
would make banking difficult, freeze trade and deepen Britain’s recession.

What is the likely cost?

According to UBS, the Swiss bank, even if Greece stays in the euro it will
mean 60 billion euros of bailout money already lent to Greece by European
taxpayers having to be written off. If Greece leaves the single currency,
thus defaulting on its debts, estimates start at 225 billion euros of losses.

Robert Chote, the head of the Government’s Office for Budget Responsibility,
warned last week that Britain might never recover from the resulting deep
recession or depression.

However, even in current circumstances, that is an uncharacteristically
melodramatic analysis. Britain, and Europe, have recovered from much worse,
such as war, in the past.

Of course, what lies ahead is potentially chaotic and thus terrifying. But if
the euro can be stripped back to its stronger core members and weaker
countries such as Greece leave, to devalue, those nations will have some
hope of eventual recovery. In contrast, it is difficult to see where growth
and recovery are going to come from with the increasingly untenable status
quo.

What will be the political impact in Britain?

The eurozone crisis could change the game. It vindicates Eurosceptics and is a
humiliating defeat for the Europhiles who advocated British membership of
the single currency. British public opinion is becoming more hostile to the
EU and pressure is building for an in/out referendum, to settle the question
at last.

David Cameron is usually good in the immediate aftermath of a crisis;
following a eurozone meltdown or reorganisation he would have an opportunity
to renegotiate a looser British relationship with the EU. But it is highly
unlikely he would do that, particularly as he is in coalition with the
Europhile Nick Clegg, who wouldn’t let him. And if the longer-term result of
a Greek departure is the misery of a sustained economic depression, it will
surely be hard for an incumbent prime minister to hold on to power.

Labour is already recording large poll leads, and some of its leading figures
– such as Tony Blair, Lord Mandelson and David Miliband – have started to
rally round the current leadership. They clearly sense that, contrary to
expectations, events are conspiring to make an Ed Miliband premiership
perfectly possible.

What if other eurozone countries are caught in the contagion and pressure
is applied on Britain to contribute more money?

Britain will not join in any future European driven bail-out of the single
currency. But if countries beyond Greece, such as Spain, are at risk of
falling out of the euro, the sums required to prop up the European economy
will be so vast that there will immediately be a call made by eurozone
governments for funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The US, and other leading world economies including Britain, will comply, for
fear of the consequences of refusing short-term aid to stricken Europe. If
there is such a euro meltdown, forget the current argument over the
Government’s so-called Plan A, involving austerity, or Plan B, the
Opposition’s call for even more spending aimed at stimulating the economy.
At that point Mr Cameron and George Osborne will need to come up with a Plan
E (E for Emergency), to deal with the dire consequences of prolonged
recession and global economic chaos.

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