A viable plan for making Afghanistan safe from terror

Until plans are clearly resolved, Western strategy will lack coherence. The
choice should not be limited to one between continued counter-insurgency and
the total cessation of military activity. There is an intermediate option of
containment – by the continued use of one or more strategic bases.

It is not a question of building “permanent” bases in Afghanistan. With the
full authority of the United Nations, the NATO long ago established several,
and the means of supplying them. If ISAF believes that the Afghan National
Army can maintain its government in power, then the next stage should be a
phased withdrawal of troops into the best protected of these bases. The time
will have come for the exercise of power in specialised and selective ways,
rather than blanket coverage. This, it seems, is what the Americans are
considering.

Redeploying into strategic bases will put the viability of the Afghan
government to the test. The longer it survives, the greater will be the
reductions in the number of such bases and the size of the deployments
within them. Withdrawal into the selected bases will remove the constant
irritant of a uniformed foreign presence, thus reducing Western casualties
on the one hand and the motivation of Afghans to join the insurgency on the
other.

ISAF will also be demonstrating its lack of ambition to micro-manage Afghan
society, but it will still have the power to inflict carefully chosen
military sanctions in response to any sign of a renewed Al-Qaeda presence in
the country connived at by the Taliban.

Western policy should not be characterised by an all-or-nothing approach. The
threat from international terrorism is unpredictable and it needs to be
counteracted by flexible means. According to Philip Hammond, when asked
about American intentions to retain a strategic base, this “has been widely
reported as a US objective”. The Obama–Karzai agreement falls some way short
of confirming this. Yet, only when the Taliban know not to expect total
victory, will any political settlement become remotely conceivable.

Julian Lewis MP is a member of the Intelligence and Security Committee and
a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies, King’s
College, London. His paper, ‘International Terrorism – the Case for
Containment’, was recently published in the US Department of Defense journal
‘Joint Force Quarterly’

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