As Israel eyes Iran and anti-US protests flare, Middle East presents frightening prospects

Particularly since 9/11, any perceived offence to Islam has been met with
protests. In the wake of the publication in a Danish newspaper of cartoons
showing the Prophet in 2005, there were deaths in Colonel Gaddafi’s Libya
and Mohammed Karzai’s Afghanistan, in Nigeria and Lebanon.

This time, the US is concerned at the ambiguous response of the new government
in Egypt, where the failure by police to protect the embassy in Cairo was
made worse by a slow personal reaction from President Mohammed Morsi.

His Muslim Brotherhood was vitriolic in its criticism of the US for not having
somehow stopped the film being shown, while Mr Morsi’s condemnation of the
embassy attack was half-hearted.

But Egypt’s ambiguity is also normal. Few Middle Eastern governments have the
courage to stand up to their Islamist elements when they think they have
public opinion on their side.

The US is equally wary about the Egyptian government’s improving relations
with Iran, with which it had a frosty relationship under Mr Morsi’s deposed
predecessor, Hosni Mubarak. Hence Mr Obama’s equivocal response when asked
in a recent interview whether the new regime in Cairo was an ally or an
enemy. He replied simply that it was “new and trying to find its way”.

Mr Morsi does not want to offend Washington yet. He is, after all, seeking
debt forgiveness and is also still in recipient of two billion US dollars a
year in military aid. But he has also extended a hand, not of friendship
perhaps but at least of co-operation, to Iran, by attending a recent meeting
of the Non-Aligned Movement there and inviting Tehran to join talks on the
future of Syria.

Expressions of alarm at this development – politely expressed as doubts as to
whether Iran can play a “constructive role” over Syria – have
already started to emanate from Western foreign ministries.

Governments across the Arab world are also nervous at what the events of the
last 18 months have unleased, in particular the danger that a sectarian
conflict in Syria could get out of hand. The likes of Saudi Arabia also
worry that pro-democracy uprisings will not stop at dictatorships but spread
to monarchies.

Such fears make America’s already difficult calculations over Iran almost
impossible.

Two years ago, American allies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
secure in their control over their people and wealthy beyond even their
dreams due to sky-high oil prices, saw a rising Iran as their only threat.

While their public postures focused on their hostility to Israel, their
private demands, memorably revealed by Wikileaks, were for “the head of
the snake” to be cut off in Iran. It seemed to ensure that if America,
or Israel, did attack Iran, America’s Middle Eastern front line in the Gulf
would be solid in its support.

Now, as Iran behaves like a wounded bear over its likely loss of its Syrian
friend, the Sunni world is suddenly nervous. But even so, it is clear they
think that now is not the time to throw another western military
intervention into the mix.

And nor do their backers – which is why a succession of envoys have been sent
by Western leaders, including David Cameron, begging Benjamin Netanyahu to
lay off.

It is less than two months to the US election. The forces of anti-Americanism
have a well-tuned instinct for the weaknesses imposed by the American
electoral cycle, and it may be no coincidence that the risk President Obama
took 18 months ago in backing the Arab Spring is coming back to haunt him
right now.

He would say, probably rightly, that he had no other option than his
semi-controlled explosion. But as embassies burn and Israel weighs its
options, the fact that it had a well-timed fuse may prove difficult for him.

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