Can Hollande make friends with Merkel?

A source close to Mr Hollande said he was “irritated” by Mrs
Merkel’s apparent inflexibility over the fiscal pact and intended to tell
her so “politely but firmly”, when they meet.

As European luminaries attempt to find the “margin for manoeuvre”
around each position to stop the Franco-German “motor” running
into a brick wall, the truth is Mr Hollande cannot be seen to yield a
centimetre, or he will risk being accused of reneging on a principal
manifesto pledge on the very day he takes office.

Apart from the devastation this would wreak to his public standing, France
faces legislative elections next month and unless his Socialist Party wins a
parliamentary majority, his entire programme risks being paralysed – along
with the country.

“Europe has become the main thing at stake,” wrote Jacques Attali, a
special adviser to François Mitterrand, modern France’s first Socialist
president elected in 1981, and one of Mr Hollande’s mentors.

“The principal challenge of the term in office he is starting will be the
actual survival of the European Union.”

Even before his victory over Mr Sarkozy exactly a week ago, Mr Hollande threw
a spanner in the celebrated Franco-German European “motor” by
promising to renegotiate the German-led fiscal pact, thrashed out and signed
by 25 of the 27 European states, which would limit public spending across
the EU and create a new bailout fund.

Mr Hollande insists growth measures be included in any pact, including a
beefed up role for the European Investment Bank and the creation of European
bonds to finance industrial and infrastructure projects.

Last week, Mrs Merkel blew his promises out of the water with a loud “Nein”
to renegotiating the pact, and an equally vehement refusal to countenance
any idea of “growth through deficits”.

The new French president’s approach, however, is gathering support across the
continent, boosted by protesters in Spain, Italy and Portugal who say
Berlin-imposed cuts are bleeding their countries to death.

In Greece the two mainstream parties adhering to Germany’s belt-tightening
orders failed to obtain a majority in a general election a week ago. In
Italy, the centre-left Democratic Party has called on the prime minister
Mario Monti, who depends on it for his majority, to delay parliamentary
approval of the fiscal pact.

Even in Germany Mrs Merkel is under pressure from the main opposition Social
Democrats who have said they will not ratify it in the Bundestag unless it
includes growth measures.

Social Democratic Party (SPD) leader Sigmar Gabriel said he hoped Mr
Hollande’s election “would not just change France but help to give
Europe a new direction” with a plan for growth and jobs to accompany
austerity.

Mrs Merkel, a canny and pragmatic politician, has said she will welcome Mr
Hollande to Berlin “with open arms”, though the signs are she
would prefer to strangle him with them.

For Mr Hollande, a man with no diplomatic, international or government
experience and who is not Mrs Merkel’s first choice of partner – she
preferred his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy – the meeting will be a baptism of
fire.

Despite their very different characters the political marriage of convenience
between Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy, both conservatives, worked.

Thrown together by the crisis, their sovereign debt busting double act
featuring austerity and public spending cuts led to them being nicknamed the
Merkozys. The German chancellor even offered to come to France and campaign
for Mr Sarkozy, an offer he refused as likely to do him more political harm
than good.

During the campaign Mrs Merkel refused to meet Mr Hollande, as did David
Cameron. The anticipated new partnership’s nickname “Merkollande”
was rapidly shortened by French commentators to “Merde”.

In an attempt to clear away some of the grounds for disagreement before
Tuesday’s meeting, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of Luxembourg and head of
Eurogroup, the meeting of eurozone finance ministers, and Herman Van Rompuy,
president of the European Council, took the highly unusual step of
travelling to Paris to meet Mr Hollande last week.

The meeting, to discuss where common ground might be found between Mr Hollande
and Mrs Merkel, was organised at the last minute as the Greek drama
unfolded, and European officials decided there was not a minute to waste.

Traditionally, French leaders have always saved their first meeting for the
German chancellor.

Mr Juncker told German public broadcaster ZDF: “I made clear to him that
some things are OK and that some things are not. What is impermissible is a
total breakdown of the agreed fiscal pact. Many will not go along with that.”

However, Mr Juncker said there was understanding in Europe that growth impetus
was needed.

In an interview with Slate magazine before his victory, Mr Hollande said: “As
much as I believe in the Franco-German partnership, I question the idea of a
duopoly. European construction is based on a well-balanced and respectful
partnership between France and Germany. That balance has changed over the
past few years.

“The Franco-German relationship has been exclusive. European institutions
have been neglected and some countries, notably the more fragile ones, have
had the unpleasant feeling of facing an executive board.”

In the same interview, Mr Hollande also attacked Britain.

“The British have been particularly shy on the issue of financial
regulation, and have only paid attention to the interests of the City of
London, hence their reluctance to implement a tax on financial transactions
and tax harmonisation in Europe. Furthermore, since the central bank cannot
directly intervene in debt financing, the UK is better protected from
speculation, and is thus relatively indifferent to the fate of the eurozone.

“I will soon meet David Cameron to discuss the benefits of a closer
industrial cooperation between our two countries and to continue the ongoing
rapprochement in terms of defence.”

However Britain sees its role in Europe, it is clear that the Franco-German
relationship, formalised in what became known as The Elysée Treaty signed by
Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and General Charles de Gaulle nearly 50 years
ago, is the one that really matters.

Professor Jacques-Pierre Gougeon, of the Paris-based Institute for
International and Strategic Relations, is confident Mr Hollande and Mrs
Merkel will be pushed into a face-saving compromise.

“It’s in nobody’s interest for there to be a conflict between our two
countries. Also Europe cannot go forwards without the Franco-German motor,”
he said.

“In any case Madame Merkel has already begun thinking about the idea of
growth and her position has evolved. There will be negotiations and it will
end up that the fiscal treaty remains but François Hollande will get a real
growth programme.”

Pierre Moscovici, Mr Hollande’s campaign director said: “François
Hollande has always said his hope is that European institutions will play a
greater role and not just at an intergovernmental level. He’s not really in
favour of a (European) management, but at the same time he is aware that the
agreement between France and Germany is an essential condition for Europe to
go forward.”

Jean-Marc Ayrault, Mr Hollande’s close adviser on issues relating to Germany
and widely tipped to become prime minister, said recently: “The
relationship between Paris and Berlin is rock solid.”

He added that he was preparing for close cooperation with the German
government.

Regis le Sommier, the deputy editor in chief of the French weekly magazine Paris
Match
, believes Mr Hollande and Mrs Merkel could develop a closer
relationship that the Chancellor had with Mr Sarkozy.

“Hollande is a thinker, he works through scenarios, is rational and not
mercurial. It would not surprise me if a friendship developed at some point
between him and the more reserved Merkel,” he wrote in an editorial for
Germany’s Bild newspaper.

Earlier in his election campaign, Mr Hollande set the tone for his anticipated
first meeting with Mrs Merkel. In an interview with French television in
April, he said: “Merkel has led Europe with Sarkozy and we can measure
the results. If I am elected president, there will be a change in the focus
of Europe’s construction.

“Enough free market, limitless competition, enough austerity. I want a
serious budget. I want to restore public accounts, which have worsened in
the past five years. Austerity for life? No. A rigorous budget? Yes. I will
renegotiate the treaty, Merkel knows it.”

Around the same time, Mrs Merkel was sticking to her guns on austerity;
Europe’s “credibility”, she said, depended on reducing deficits
and debt.

“We’re not saying that saving solves all problems,” she told a
conference in Berlin. Still, “You can’t spend more than you take in.
You can’t live your whole life this way. Everybody knows this.”

And on Saturday a warning from Germany’s most senior banker suggested that the
country’s financiers – who call the shots in the eurozone right now – are
right behind that stance.

Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, warned Mr Hollande against messing
with the fiscal pact, creating debt or trying to change the objectives of
the European Central Bank.

“A modification of the status of the ECB would be dangerous,” he
told the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. “Jobs and economic
growth are the fruits of commercial exchanges. The central bank is in the
best position to contribute to the stability of the (European) currency.

“We have to wait to see the final government programme, but it is clear
that we have to refuse his campaign pledge to talk about the European budget
pact.

“There is a European custom that means you uphold signed agreements…
Every experience proves that too great a debt handicaps growth. Fighting
debts with debts will not work.”

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