Commentary: Putin’s victory is more ashes than diamonds

Yet for all that, March 4 marked a fatal turning point for the Putin regime.
Russian politics has awoken from its coma. Once people craved stability. Now
they chafe at stagnation. They want answers to big simple questions, such as “where
did the money go?”

Mr Putin has presided over a decade in which Russia had a trillion dollars
(£600 billion) in extra oil and gas revenues. Yet the road network is
reduced and public services are still dire, while his cronies enjoy
grotesque prosperity.

Corruption and incompetence mean that even with oil at around $110 per barrel,
Russia is running out of money. The Putin regime – at least in the eyes of
middle-class Russians – looks out of date. His staged television appearances
neither convince, nor entertain. His promises of higher salaries, pensions,
and state spending, are threadbare and wildly unrealistic. His greatest
asset – his popularity – has shrivelled.

This victory is more ashes than diamonds. But it would be simplistic to expect
clear-cut change. The opposition is still too weak to win; the regime has
too much at stake to surrender. Thanks to corruption, it cannot mount a real
crackdown. The big danger for Mr Putin is that his ex-KGB cronies will see
him as a liability more than an asset. His presidential term lasts six years
in theory. I give him two.

Edward Lucas is the author of the “New Cold War: how the
Kremlin threatens Russia and the West” and “Deception: spies, lies
and how Russia dupes the west”, an exposé of east-west espionage.

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