Fiscal batteries need recharging: Treasury

Treasury boss Martin Parkinson has warned the global economic outlook is still very uncertain, with the situation in Europe continuing to create most concern.

Dr Parkinson told a business economists’ lunch that his concerns over the eurozone were reflected in the 2012/13 federal budget released last week which pointed to a surplus in the next financial year.

Treasury forecast a 0.75 per cent contraction in European growth this year, greater than the 0.25 per cent contraction predicted by the International Monetary Fund and other institutions.

“With substantial risks remaining in the global economic environment, it is critical that we move now to recharge the fiscal batteries while circumstances remain favourable,” he said in his traditional post-budget speech to the Australian Business Economists in Sydney on Tuesday.

Treasurer Wayne Swan on Tuesday was also quizzed about the situation in Greece, which remains in political gridlock nine days after a general election.

“Everyone is acutely aware there’s going to be a long and painful adjustment in Europe,” Mr Swan told reporters in Sydney.

“(But) we are in far better nick than just about any other developed economy anywhere in the world, Europe, or anywhere else.”

For that reason, Dr Parkinson is standing by the decision to return the budget to surplus, arguing that it is not a political gesture or one that should be delayed by a year or so.

“If it’s not appropriate to restore the structural budget position when we have low unemployment and the economy expected to grow at around trend, when will it be appropriate?” he said.

He said the fiscal consolidation – from a forecast $44.4 billion deficit in 2011/12 to a $1.5 billion surplus in 2012/13 – was happening in a far healthier economic environment than faced by many other advanced economies.

One positive from the debacle in Greece, whose president will make a last-ditch effort on Tuesday to resolve the inconclusive May 6 election, has been a fall in the Australian currency below parity with the US dollar for the first time this year.

Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Wilcox said a sustained fall below parity, along with recent cuts in local interest rates, was a “welcome boost” for businesses selling to export markets or competing with imports in the domestic market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 50 basis points at its board meeting two weeks ago, to which lenders passed on some 33 basis points on average to their customers.

Meanwhile, the central bank on Tuesday released the minutes of that rates meeting, which fleshed out its reasoning.

While its forecasts were for growth of around three per cent over 2012 and 2013, growth outside of the mining sector was expected to be sub-trend in the near term.

Lending rates had also increased since the RBA’s previous reductions in late 2011, so the board judged that a further cut was “desirable”.

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