France election 2012: the runners and riders

But his approval ratings plummeted when the French took against his habit of
cavorting with millionaires and putting his private life on public display.
He has never fully recovered and is the least popular president in modern
French history ahead of a re-election bid.

Sarkozy made an impression on the international stage, returning France to
NATO’s military command and co-leading with Britain military action in Libya
last year.

His reforms include raising the official retirement age in the face of mass
protests, giving universities more autonomy, loosening the 35-hour week,
only replacing half of retiring state workers and installing a minimum
service in transport and schools during strikes.

But detractors say he is divisive and too close to big business, and his camp
faces a spate of corruption allegations.

He insists he has protected France from the economic storm, but nemployment
has risen to a 12-year high on his watch while the public debt is almost 90
per cent of GDP.

As in 2007, he has been gunning for the far-Right electorate in round one.
Polls suggest he will reach a run-off but lose by a mile to Socialist
François Hollande.

He hopes that a “silent majority” will sweep him to surprise victory on May 6,
but for many French the problem is more the man than his politics, and there
may be little he can do to change that.

François Hollande(AFP/Getty Images)

François Hollande

Born: Rouen August 12, 1954.

Candidate for the Socialist Party

Slogan: Change is now.

The “Mr Normal” of the French Left is looking increasingly likely to be become
the country’s first Socialist president since François Mitterrand won in
1988.

Critics say Hollande, who ran the Socialist party for 11 years after a
back-office role in the Mitterrand administration is inexperienced and
indecisive. Supporters say he is a consensus-builder.

Once called “Flanby” after a wobbly caramel pudding, he has gone on a crash
diet, sharpened his look, and dropped his wisecracks to appear more
presidential.

While few are wild about his campaign, the moderate left-winger has managed to
cash in on massive rejection of the flashy, mercurial Nicolas Sarkozy at
pains to shed his nickname of “President Bling Bling”.

By contrast, Hollande promises his first measure will be to cut his own salary
by 30 per cent and bring more social and fiscal “justice”.

Part of his rhetoric is Socialist old-school, such as singling out “finance”
as his main enemy, proposing to slap a 75 per cent tax on annual earnings
exceeding a million euros, returning the retirement age to 60 for those who
have worked long enough, and creating 60,000 jobs in state education.

He insists there will be no spending spree and that he will eliminate the
public deficit by 2017 but equally proposes no deep public spending cuts or
debt-reduction plans. The French appear to have warmed to his argument that
Greek-style austerity would be self-defeating and that the EU fiscal
discipline pact must include a growth chapter.

He has consistently held a strong lead in polls for the second round.

Who do you want to win Round 1 of the French Election?

Francois Bayrou(AFP/Getty Images)

Francois Bayrou

Born: Bordères May 25, 1951

Candidate for the Democratic Movement (Modem).

Slogan: Nothing resists a united France.

For his third presidential race, the centrist “third man” of the 2007
elections is once again potential kingmaker, even though his share of the
vote has dwindled.

With opinion polls hovering around the 10-per cent mark, he has little chance
of reaching the May 6 runoff between the top two contenders but his swing
voters could prove crucial in helping Nicolas Sarkozy snatch victory.

Bayrou refuses to be drawn on who, if anyone he will back should he fail to
reach the run-off, saying the French are tired of a classic Left-Right
clash. That said, he has not ruled out serving as prime minister – Sarkozy
has intimated he could appoint him if re-elected.

An admirer of Henry IV, who governed with Catholics and Protestants after the
wars of religion,) he famously overcame a stutter to become a politician,
and is MP for the Pyrenees-Atlantiques department in southern France.

Polls suggest the earthy horse-breeder and Catholic father of six is the
best-loved candidate, but the French, it seems are not motivated by his
oft-held mantra on fiscal responsibility, debt reduction and the
“moralisation” of politics.

The low-key, pro-European contender won 18.5 per cent of the vote in the first
round in 2007, but this time he is trailing hard-Left firebrand Jean-Luc
Melenchon and far-Right Marine Le Pen, both of whom have snatched the
anti-system vote he captured last time round.

He had a brief surge of support late last year, but is unlikely to repeat his
2007 performance.

Marine Le Pen(AFP/Getty Images)

Marine Le Pen

Born Neuilly-sur-Seine August 5 1968

Candidate for the National Front

Slogan: The voice of the people, the spirit of France

France’s far-Right candidate appears to have succeeded in “de-demonising” the
party she took over from her father Jean-Marie last year, outlawing
anti-Semitic or racist outbursts, such as when her father dubbed the Nazi
gas chambers a “detail of history”.

But whether rejuvenating the party will lead to a higher score than her
father, who reached the second round run-off in 2002 with almost 17 per cent
of the vote, remains to be seen.

Earlier this year, the former lawyer briefly overtook Nicolas Sarkozy in
voting intentions but her score has dropped since Mr Sarkozy started gunning
for the FN electorate with a hard-line discourse on immigration and crime.

The twice-divorced mother of three also faces a bitter fight for third place
with hard leftist and arch-rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

She initially campaigned on an anti-euro, protectionist economic programme
aimed at the young and disillusioned workers. That sputtered, and after a
shooting spree by a home-grown Islamist militant in March she reverted to
the party’s fundamentals – immigration and security.

“How many Mohammed Merahs are there in the boats and planes that arrive in
France full of immigrants?,” she asked in one recent rally.

Analysts say anything below 15 per cent in round one will be considered a
failure for Le Pen, who hopes to win seats in legislative elections in June
and new Right-wing allies should Sarkozy’s party implode.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (AP)

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Born Tangier, Morocco, August 19, 1951

Candidate for the Left Front

Slogan: Take power

The former Trotskyist is the true surprise of the elections and the only of
several hard-Left candidates to command double-digits in the polls.

A fiery orator, Mélenchon has drawn huge crowds in various open-air rallies
including one in Paris’s revolutionary Place de la Bastille, where he spoke
of “civil revolution” to toppled the power of global finance.

For many years a Socialist senator, he left the party in 2008 to form the more
doctrinaire Left Party. He is running for the Left Front, a coalition of
several parties including the Communists.

Mélenchon calls for a 20 per cent rise in the minimum wage, the confiscation
of annual earnings above 360,000 euros, retirement at 60 for all and a ban
on profitable companies laying off workers. Think tanks say the costs are
untenable, but he has struck a chord among voters angry at high
unemployment, low purchasing power and fat cat salaries.

His popularity has influenced the debate on tax among mainstream candidates.

Mélénchon’s sworn enemy is far-Right candidate Marine Le Pen, whom he has
called “half demented” and with whom he is fighting for the workers’ vote.
At one stage he overtook her in the polls, but Le Pen now appears set to
finish slightly ahead.

He has dismissed Hollande as a “pedal boat captain” but has indicated he will
call on his supporters to back the Socialist in round two. But his
popularity is double-edged for Hollande, who must not alienate centrists in
the runoff.

The higher Mélénchon’s score, the greater his bargaining power in negotiations
for seats in parliament or cabinet. And the trickier Hollande’s pledge to
balance the books will become should he win.

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