Greece crisis: Alexis Tsipras on European tour

“It’s the dominant powers who will lead the Union into instability – and
the eurozone to collapse – if they insist on austerity.” Put
simply, Mr Tsipras is telling Greeks exactly what they want to hear.

Some 80 per cent favour staying in the euro, but without the cuts required by
the memorandum. Promising the electorate they can have their cake and eat it
has proved a vote-winner.

Syriza came from nowhere to finish a strong second in the inconclusive
election on May 6. As Greece prepares for a second poll on June 17, Mr
Tsipras is within a percentage point or two of first place, according to
recent surveys.

One opinion poll published on Sunday placed him only half a point behind New
Democracy, the established party of the Right which supports the bail-out
and is still – just – the front-runner.

“He’s charismatic, he’s young and he’s dynamic,” said Stelios
Kouloglou, a presenter on national television whose 90-minute interview with
Mr Tsipras drew a record audience last week.

The fact that he has never held office is a positive advantage in a country
where all established politicians are profoundly discredited. Mr Tsipras is
a vote-winner for his party but an untested leader, said Mr Kouloglou.

“He’s never governed. He also has to deal with different factions within
his own party: there are Communists, there are also Social Democrats and he
has to balance all of this.” Mr Kouloglou added: “I don’t know if
he’s mature enough to take political advantage of his popularity without
becoming arrogant.” Mr Tsipras’s opponents say he would place Greece on
a path that leads inexorably to departure from the euro and national
bankruptcy. German taxpayers are the principal contributors to the euros 130
billion that Greece needs simply to pay wages and pensions. If Greece cuts
public spending by less than agreed, ordinary Germans would have to stump up
more.

Mrs Merkel has duly ruled out any renegotiation of the bail-out deal. Mr
Tsipras, for his part, insists the German Chancellor is bluffing. A Greek
departure from euro would jeopardise the single currency itself and cost
Germany far more, he claims. “The eurozone is like a chain of 17 links
– if one link is broken, the whole thing is destroyed, so it is absurd to
think Greece can be destroyed and the eurozone saved,” he said.

If Mr Tsipras becomes prime minister next month, the youngest leader in Europe
will be on a collision course with the continent’s most seasoned politician
in charge of its economic powerhouse.

If Mrs Merkel means what she says, Mr Tsipras will be faced with a stark
choice: eat his words and implement the “barbaric” bail-out, or
take Greece out of the euro. Confronted with that decision, some believe he
would prove more pragmatic than his rhetoric might suggest.

“It’s very hard to second-guess how people confronted with power would
react in these circumstances,” said Prof Iain Begg of the European
Institute at the London School of Economics. “I suspect that those who
say ‘let’s call their [Germany’s] bluff would have their own bluff being
called.” But Mrs Merkel could face a dilemma of her own. What would she
do if refusing to reconsider the bail-out agreement entailed Greece’s exit
from the euro and the attendant risk of Spain being next?

A victory for Mr Tsipras next month will start a game of bluff between the
neophyte and the veteran that will decide the euro’s future.

In the meantime, the young Greek has captured the popular mood. At news-stands
across Athens, a magazine cover displays a statue of Venus raising a single
finger in ribald salute towards a scowling Mrs Merkel.

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