Gen Gantz’s assessment of Iran’s intentions is consistent with the view of British and American officials. They also believe that Iran wants the ability to build a nuclear weapon – in breach of its obligations under the non-proliferation treaty – but has not yet decided whether to exercise the option.
However, Gen Gantz added that a nuclear-capable Iran would still pose a serious threat, not least because the intentions of its leadership could change. “I agree that such a capability, in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists who at particular moments could make different calculations, is dangerous,” he said.
Iran began enriching uranium on a large scale in 2007, embarking on a sensitive process that could be used to make the essential material for a nuclear weapon. But Gen Gantz played down suggestions that 2012 will be the vital year when Iran either becomes nuclear-capable or is thwarted by international pressure, including possible military attack.
“Clearly, the more the Iranians progress the worse the situation is. This is a critical year – but not necessarily ‘go, no-go’. The problem doesn’t necessarily stop on December 31, 2012,” he said.
Gen Gantz, made commander of Israel’s armed forces last February, represents a strand of Israeli military thinking which is preoccupied by the risks of war with Iran and anxious to restrain Mr Netanyahu and his ministers.
Gen Gantz stressed that Israel was a “temperate state” that would make its decisions “carefully, out of historic responsibility, but without hysteria”.