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April 26th, 2012 
FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda Treasurer Wayne Swan’s task of returning the budget to surplus just got even harder, with a new report estimating there has been a $10 billion deterioration for the 2012/13 bottom line in the past five months.
Canberra-based economic consultant Macroeconomics expects without policy changes – spending cuts or revenue increases – there would be a deficit of $7.8 billion for the next financial year, rather than the $1.5 billion surplus predicted in last November’s mid-year budget review.
This is in large part down to a $6 billion shortfall in expected business tax receipts associated with the general slowing in the non-mining domestic economy, it says in its Commonwealth State Government 2012/13 Budget Bulletin.
Mr Swan will hand down his fifth budget on May 8.
Unexpectedly low revenues are being driven by a declining terms of trade, lower capital gains receipts, and company tax receipts being eroded by a high Australia dollar and large depreciation write-offs associated with mining investment.
“The treasurer is in this predicament mostly because in the four budgets up to 2012/13, he has a track record as a net discretionary spender who failed to do the necessary heavy lifting with Finance Minister Penny Wong last year,” the report says.
That would have ensured a return to surplus regardless of softer revenue outcomes in the past few months.
For the current financial year (2011/12) it expects a deficit of $40.1 billion, up from $37.1 billion in the mid-year review.
And the deficit pain continues without policy changes, with Macroeconomics predicting a $7.8 billion shortfall in 2013/14, rather than Treasury’s forecast $1.9 billion surplus and a $6.2 billion deficit in 2014/15 instead of a $3.1 billion surplus.
It also expects the net debt position to deteriorate.
Rather than peaking at 8.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011/12 as per the mid-year budget review, it forecasts it at 9.4 per cent of GDP in 2012/13, rising to 9.7 per cent by 2015/16, or $173 billion.
However, the consultant agrees with Mr Swan that now is the time to return to a surplus, with the overall economy ticking over at a reasonable pace, and such action helping parts that are being hit hardest by a strong dollar and high interest rates.
“A well-constructed fiscal consolidation would place downward pressure on interest rates and the exchange rate,” it says.
“Spending cuts also lower the risk premia on public debt and reload the fiscal cannon if future fiscal stimulus is required.”
For the states and territories, Macroeconomics says that most jurisdictions are playing “catch-up” with public infrastructure spending, forcing them to run large budget deficits.
Collectively, it is forecasting states deficits amounting to around $15 billion in 2012/13, and not one in surplus.
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