Europe’s woes a ‘rolling crisis’: Swan

Treasurer Wayne Swan believes the most likely scenario for the European Union is one of “rolling crises and volatility”.

Speaking ahead of this weekend’s crucial election in Greece, Mr Swan will warn a conference on Thursday that dark clouds have gathered again over Europe after a period of relative calm in the first three months of the year.

“European politicians are still well behind the curve, having failed to take advantage of the months of relative calm,” he will tell the Euromoney Australasian and Asian covered bond forum in Sydney.

“There is no escaping the conclusion that Europe has a long and painful road ahead, with the most likely scenario being rolling crises and volatility.”

However, European policymakers had made some progress on structural reforms to boost growth and reduce debt, as well as reinforcing financial firewalls.

Mr Swan praises the European Central Bank for its important role in providing huge amounts of liquidity to the banking system, and the “much-needed” European agreement to support the recapitalisation and restructuring of the Spanish banking system.

But Europe still faces broader challenges.

“The simple fact is that European policymakers have a lot more heavy lifting to do,” he will say.

“Put simply, what is required is some basic political courage.”

Australia had a proud history of delivering hard-fought, politically unpopular economic reforms which made the country “great”.

“The world is looking to Europe to do the same,” he adds.

Against the uncertain global outlook, financial markets are punishing countries without a credible fiscal plan, which is why it’s critical that Australia continues on its path to a surplus in 2012/13, he says.

“Strengthening surpluses will underwrite confidence in our already very strong public finances as the foundation for confidence in our broader economy,” Mr Swan says.

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