‘India vulnerable to Iran oil shock’

In an article published on First Post website, Venky Vembu, noted that India is already suffering from current account deficits, rising fuel subsidies, and budget deficits, and a further rise in oil prices will be a severe blow to the country’s economy.

“An oil shock resulting from disruption of oil supply in West Asia would cause oil prices to spike in a way that renders the Indian economy, more than that of any other country, particularly vulnerable,” he added.

The analyst noted that rising oil prices could worsen current account balances, and an expanding current account deficit could lead to currency weakness and force domestic rates higher to fund the deficit.

“India, more than other countries in Asia, is also vulnerable to a revival in inflationary pressure, given the extraordinarily high correlation between crude oil prices and India’s consumer price inflation,” Vembu said.

He stated that rising oil prices will have a very powerful impact on the consumer price index (CPI) or inflation rate in India throughout 2012.

Vembu added that countries with high food weightings in their consumption baskets could be affected disproportionately by a persistent rise in fuel prices – and India tops the worry list here too.

“An oil shock today arising from Iran-Israeli tension would be particularly bad news for India. Perhaps it’s time for our Finance Minister to send up his prayers to God…asking Him to keep things on an even keel so that his disjointed budget…doesn’t go even more out of whack than it already has,” he concluded.

Concerns about a possible oil flow disruption from the Persian Gulf increased after Iran threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which a daily total of 15-17 million barrels of crude pass, in reaction to unilateral sanctions imposed on the country’s oil exports by Washington and member states of the European Union.

SS/AZ/IS

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