Infrastructure cost rises may hit projects

Future cost pressures pose a key risk to Australia’s massive infrastructure investment pipeline and could render some projects uneconomical, a private sector forecaster warns.

According to Deloitte Access Economics, the value of projects all stages – under construction, committed, under consideration or possible – is approaching a staggering $1 trillion.

Its investment monitor released on Wednesday shows the value of the projects rose by a further $8.4 billion, or 0.9 per cent, to $921.2 billion in the March quarter.

The mining sector continues to dominate, totalling some 45 per cent of projects by value.

Major investment projects are transitioning through the planning stages – like the Chevron consortium’s $29 billion Wheatstone LNG plant in the Carnarvon basin, which is now under way, and the Inpex Alpha $30.8 billion Darwin LNG project, which moved to the committed stage in the quarter.

“The near term outlook for engineering construction activity in Australia has therefore received yet another boost, lifting again what had already been a high level,” Deloitte Access director David Rumbens said in the report.

But he warned that while engineering construction is the key driver of Australia’s economic growth at present, a smooth delivery of this pipeline of investment projects is not guaranteed.

He said cost inflation is a key issue for the mining sector globally, and while engineering construction price growth in Australia has been relatively subdued in the past year it is now trending up.

“Australia’s experience over the past decade is that cost growth here over time can be substantial,” Mr Rumbens said.

He said cost inflation will be driven by a number of factors, including shortages of key production inputs as projects compete globally for resources.

“If operating and capital costs continue to increase, there is a risk that some marginal projects in the investment pipeline may become uneconomic,” he said.

More broadly, the report said that economic infrastructure – transport, ports, energy, water and telecommunications projects – was benefiting from the mining boom.

However, non-residential building activity is being weighed down by a soft jobs market, rising office vacancy rates and weak retail turnover growth, and Mr Rumbens expects a pick-up in this sector is still some way off.

The resource rich Western Australia and Queensland states lead the way in investment projects, although the approval of the Inpex Alpha project will soon see the Northern Territory experiencing a mining investment boom of its own.

South Australia could also soon benefit from an expansion of the Olympic Dam, with a decision from BHP Billiton expected in the coming months, Mr Rumbens said.

He also noted that while there’s a reasonable level of infrastructure investment and some mining projects in southeast Australia, both NSW and Victoria continue to experience weak levels of commercial construction – retail, offices and tourist facilities.

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