Mining the brightest spark, says Treasury



CAR manufacturing and component making in Australia will fall 39 per cent by 2020 and the textiles, clothing and footwear sector will decline 34 per cent, according to Treasury modelling released yesterday.


But updated Treasury modelling on the government’s carbon pricing package predicts the mining sector will grow 77 per cent by 2020 on the back of booms in coalmining (up 45 per cent); gas (up 100 per cent); iron ore (up 104 per cent); and non-ferrous ore (up 92 per cent). Other mining is predicted to grow 82 per cent between 2010 and 2020, according to modelling.

Treasury predicts a shift away from manufacturing (expected to grow 5 per cent) and agriculture (up 12 per cent) towards mining, services (up 38 per cent) and construction (up 51 per cent) as the resources boom draws labour and capital away from less profitable sectors of the economy.

But the steel industry, which will be subject to a $300 million assistance package under the carbon tax package, is tipped to grow 10 per cent to 2020, according to Treasury.

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In releasing updated modelling based on a $23-a-tonne carbon price yesterday, Treasurer Wayne Swan said there was almost no difference from the previous modelling at $20 a tonne.

“The economy continues to grow strongly under a carbon price, with real gross national income per person growing at an average rate of 1.1 per cent to 2050,” Mr Swan said.

Gross domestic product is tipped to grow from $1.3 trillion currently to more than $1.7 trillion in 2020, about 30 per cent.

“Jobs grow strongly under a carbon price, with national employment expected to increase by 1.6 million jobs to 2020,” he said.

“Incomes grow strongly under a carbon price, rising by around $9000 in today’s terms by 2020.”

The modelling said the carbon price would cut growth by less than 0.1 of a percentage point a year to 2050.

It shows that by 2020 the electricity sector will begin its transformation, with coal-fired power declining 9 per cent, gas-fired power growing 25 per cent and renewables growing 527 per cent.

Saul Eslake of the Grattan Institute said the decline in manufacturing was caused by a combination of the dismantling of tariff barriers and the fact households were spending more on services than on goods as a proportion of their income. “The biggest single cause of the decline in manufacturing as a share of GDP and employment is not the dismantling of tariff walls but the fact that we have gotten richer and we have behaved like every other group of people in the world who have gotten richer,” he said.

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