Sudan to normalize relations with Israel, will Sudan succeed?

According to the Sudanese Foreign Ministry, Khartoum is bolstering its lines of communication with Tel Aviv in order to fully normalize relations. After meeting with the head of the Sovereignty Council and other Sudanese officials in February, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen made the announcement.

The goal of the talks, according to a spokesman for Sudan’s supreme court, the Sovereignty Council, was to forge “fruitful relations with Israel” and advance cooperation in a number of areas, including security and military affairs. According to the council statement, Sudanese leaders also discussed the necessity of achieving “stability between Israel and the Palestinian people,” but they omitted any mention of full diplomatic ties or the establishment of embassies in each nation. However, according to three military officials from Sudan, Eli Cohen’s visit “marked progress on the issue of normalization,” according to the Associated Press.

Eli Cohen, the first Israeli foreign minister to visit Sudan on official business, also had a meeting with Ali al-Sadiq, the Sudanese foreign minister. Cohen announced, upon his arrival at the Tel Aviv airport after visiting Khartoum, that Israel and Sudan had decided to work toward a “peace agreement.” I’m happy to report that during the visit, we decided to sign a peace treaty between Sudan and Israel after Khartoum has a civilian government in place.

It will be recalled that in 2020 Sudan joined Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates in ratifying the “Abrahamic Accords,” which were mediated by the United States and established full diplomatic relations. However, in Sudan, the procedure came to a standstill as a result of strong public opposition. Then, in October 2021, a military coup overthrew the previous Sudanese government, upsetting the country’s precarious democratic transition to new political structures. Nevertheless, as the Associated Press reported, citing one of the three military officials without providing any additional information, “behind the scenes talks” between Israeli and Sudanese military and intelligence officials continue. Early in 2022, Sudanese Army Chief of Staff Abdel Fattah al-Burhan defended previous encounters between Israeli and Sudanese officials in public, claiming that the intelligence sharing allegedly assisted in the detention of alleged militants in Sudan.

Israeli authorities made no immediate comments. Before taking off for France, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did, however, imply that something was being prepared. He noted that earlier in the day, Chad, which borders Sudan, opened its embassy in Israel and added, “We continue to expand the circle of peace.” Netanyahu, who took back office in December, continued, “We will continue to broaden and deepen the circle of peace with additional countries, both nearby and far.” Building relationships with African and Arab nations that had previously been hostile to Israel was a top priority for his government during his previous 12-year term as prime minister.

Even though Sudan is embroiled in a severe political and economic crisis, a deal with an African nation would be very valuable to Israel, even though it lacks the influence and wealth of the Gulf Arab nations. Sudan used to be one of the Arab world’s most vocal opponents of Israel, and the United States even designated Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1993. In order to aid Sudan’s struggling economy, end its pariah status, and act as a motivator to normalize relations with Israel, the Trump administration removed Sudan from that list in 2020.

But at the same time, even Khartoum’s gradual move toward normalizing relations with Tel Aviv has caused “widespread resentment and anger” in Sudan. A series of statements by a wide range of Sudanese politicians, local resistance committees, and Sudanese and Arab activists stressed that no step by the Sovereignty Council toward normalizing relations with Israel was “binding on the Sudanese people.”

“The ruling power in Sudan is struggling to get foreign support, even if it comes from the devil. But it does not express the will and desire of the Sudanese people,” said al-Walid Ali of the Sudanese Professional Association (SPA). The resistance committees denounced the “normalization agreement” with Israel as a “humiliation,” adding: “It is completely divorced from the values and history of the Sudanese people as opposed to attempts to legitimize the [Israeli] occupation and its terrorist practices.”  In addition, 28 political parties, blocs, and organizations signed a charter for the creation of the Popular Forces of Resistance to Normalization. The signatories include the Popular Congress Party, the Reform Now movement, the Just Peace Forum party, the Independent Youth Assembly, and the Sudanese Ulema Organization.

Despite so much opposition, there has been notable progress toward normalization. The rapprochement between Khartoum and Tel Aviv began about three years ago. The first milestone was a meeting between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of the Sovereignty Council, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Entebbe, Uganda, in February 2020. Almost a year later, in January 2021, the Justice Minister in Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s government signed the so-called “Abraham Accords” with the visiting US Treasury Secretary. The document was largely symbolic and indicated Sudan’s intentions to move forward with normalization. In April 2021 the government, under pressure from the Sovereignty Council, passed a law repealing the 1958 law calling for a boycott of Israel. The law prohibits all political, commercial and other forms of contact with the Israeli state, and violations are punishable by up to ten years in prison, a fine and confiscation of assets.

If official negotiations were able to overcome the “freeze” in relations between Khartoum and Tel Aviv a few years ago, they have not achieved a breakthrough in Sudanese public opinion or a positive perception of Israel. In fact, for that matter, Sudanese public attitudes toward Israel have even hardened in response to the practices of the Israeli occupation. With the recent killing of ten Palestinian civilians by the occupation forces in Jenin, the racist anti-Palestinian statements of Israeli Interior Minister Ben-Gvir, the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque by Israeli settlers, and other acts of brutality and provocation, outrage in Sudan, as elsewhere in the world, is growing. As if to perpetuate the cycle of violence that begets violence, Israel has intensified and expanded its attacks on Palestinians in retaliation for the recent Palestinian suicide bombings.

In seeking closer relations with Israel, the Sudanese authorities hope to achieve a number of goals. First of all, they understand that the revival and development of the crisis plaguing the Sudanese economy depends to some extent on improved relations with Israel. They believe it has the international clout to help lift UN sanctions, allocate development aid, and encourage foreign direct investment. They also believe that establishing relations with Israel would ease US pressure in certain contentious areas. Tel Aviv could help convince Washington to support the lifting of international sanctions, as well as lifting the sanctions the US itself imposed on Khartoum, and reviving the US-Sudanese partnership in development, investment and trade.

During his recent visit to Israel in January, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced that Sudan would soon join the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco in signing the Abrahamic Accords. He said that his government hopes to further expand the normalization of relations between Israel and other countries in the region if Sudanese-Israeli relations are eventually resolved. The Sudanese authorities hope and try to take advantage of this desire of Washington. On the African continent, Khartoum believes that Israel could help solve problems with some regional powers. For example, the Israelis have considerable influence in Addis Ababa and could play a role in reducing tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia over border disputes.

Israel, for its part, seeks to increase its influence in Africa, and Sudan can serve as an important gateway to this goal. Tehran has recently taken advantage of France’s withdrawal from a number of West African countries to expand its influence there. Tel Aviv perceives this as a threat to its interests and intends to counter it. Normalization of relations with Arab and Islamic countries will help to achieve this goal, and there could be further successes in expanding the scope of the process, which, according to Israel, will reduce the intensity of criticism of Israeli actions against the Palestinians and, possibly, improve Israel’s image in the region.

Apparently, the Sudanese authorities, especially the Sovereignty Council, believe that they can weather the storm of popular anger if they continue to sign the Abrahamic Accords. Of course, they must believe that pragmatic considerations must prevail amidst unstable domestic, regional, and international circumstances and at a time when the Sudanese economy is getting worse and worse. It remains to be seen whether Khartoum will be able to use improved relations with Israel to its advantage against Sudan’s regional and international adversaries.

Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

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