Syria: Bashar al-Assad’s adversaries likely to return to UN Security Council

“This is the key: Russia backed the Annan plan, as did China. So what will be their response when Western governments ring up and say Bashar al-Assad has not delivered?” asked Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.

But the fate of the Annan proposals does not alter the fact that Syria remains Russia’s only reliable ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin’s strategic interest in preserving Mr Assad’s regime has not disappeared. Meanwhile, China remains adamantly opposed to what it denounces as “interference” in the affairs of a sovereign nation.

Russia and China will now have to decide whether these factors are powerful enough to justify suffering yet more diplomatic embarrassment on Mr Assad’s behalf. The signs are that they are tiring of being his global protectors, but whether they are prepared to abandon him in the Security Council remains an open question.

Other countries have still starker choices to make. Last month, Turkey’s government raised the possibility of imposing a “buffer zone” on its common border with Syria. Now that Syrian troops have actually fired into their neighbour’s territory for the first time, Turkey would have every reason to make good on this threat.

But carving out a secure area on Syrian soil, perhaps a few miles deep, would require a military invasion. Turkey has the ability to execute this operation: its army deploys 400,000 troops, almost twice as many as Syria. Yet diplomats in Ankara believe that for all his passionate rhetoric, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, lacks the stomach for this fight.

That leaves Mr Assad’s opponents with the starkest and most perilous option of all. The Free Syrian Army, the nascent rebel movement, now has little choice but to seek arms from whoever is willing to provide them. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have publicly promised to help, although neither has acted so far.

The scenic frontier between Turkey and Syria once ranked among the most peaceful in the Middle East. As recently as 2010, Mr Erdogan held joint cabinet meetings with Mr Assad and the two leaders agreed to allow visa-free travel across their common border. That tranquil period has ended with a vengeance.

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