Voter trends haunt Gillard and Labor

AAP

Two political major trends have become clearer over the course of this year, and neither is a vote of confidence in the Julia Gillard-led Labor federal government.

Australians are more concerned than ever about the prospects for the national economy, against a backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in global markets and the implications for job security.

As well, a growing number of voters feel the process of government is getting worse.

An Australian National University survey, which has tracked the most important issues for voters since March, found the economy has been the number one worry all year and has grown as a concern, from 17 per cent to 22 per cent in the latest September poll.

The same poll, released this week, found “better government” was becoming a touchstone issue, rising from five per cent to 18 per cent.

Combined with the eight per cent of respondents saying “better government” was their second major concern, this means around one-in-four voters believe good government is the first or second most important issue facing Australia.

It’s worth underlining this.

Voters are saying health care, housing affordability, education, an ageing population, poverty and law and order (all given as options in the survey) are much less important problems than the perception that government in Australia is not measuring up.

What’s behind the view that government is getting worse?

If you ask political scientist Professor John Wanna, from Griffith University, it comes down to a lack of a “narrative” or clear direction from the government.

“When they make an announcement they are seemingly on the run, changing their mind, backtracking, not having consulted,” Wanna says.

“I don’t think that automatically means people think the opposition knows what is going on, (but) there’s a general feeling that there’s a malaise across the political system that nobody seems to have answers.”

On the economic front, television footage of “Occupy Wall Street”-style protesters, combined with that of European leaders struggling to solve the continent’s sovereign debt crisis, has fanned fears that the “contagion” could affect the jobs of everyday Australians.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, who has been involved in the global talks, has consistently argued the economy’s fundamentals are strong.

“Unemployment in Australia has a five in front of it … we have moderating inflation … we have an unprecedented investment pipeline,” is the message whenever a microphone is present.

Statistically, all this is true.

But voters are seeing electricity and gas prices rising and finding it more expensive to fill a shopping trolley.

Many traditional blue-collar jobs have evaporated, particularly in manufacturing.

More people are being offered part-time or casual work rather than permanent full-time employment, as others delay their retirement plans because their retirement savings have been eroded by financial-market declines.

The Tony Abbott-led opposition has ridden a wave of voter discontent and falling confidence since the opinion polls turned in his favour in March, when the broad details of Labor’s carbon tax were announced.

The carbon tax has been the perfect issue for the coalition, which has leveraged hip-pocket impacts alongside a broken government election promise.

“The Australian community needs to understand just how much damage this government is inflicting on them, just how much economic vandalism we are getting from this government,” Mr Abbott told reporters this week after he landing in Perth ahead of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).

This week’s Newspoll put public opposition to the carbon tax at 59 per cent – relatively unchanged since the March announcement of the plan.

But the ANU poll showed 63 per cent of respondents approved of a carbon tax on the 500 largest polluters.

So once again it comes down to the government’s inability to get its message across.

Prof Wanna says perceptions the tax will inevitably trickle down from big companies through the supply chain to lift the prices of everyday goods and services is more potent, and simpler to understand.

The flip side is that big polluters will end up paying billions of dollars for clean-energy programs, carbon-abatement programs, tax cuts and pension rises.

As the prime minister completes her CHOGM duties this weekend and heads to Cannes for the G20 leaders summit, she may need to consider how to reverse the political trends and re-sell the government’s policies.

You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Leave a Reply

Powered by WordPress | Designed by: Premium WordPress Themes | Thanks to Themes Gallery, Bromoney and Wordpress Themes