When a new parliament is elected, it may well have a very different look.
The Brotherhood’s decision to renege on a prior promise not to stand for the
presidency, and a widespread perception that it wants too much power for
itself, has triggered a backlash against it.
Although Mr Morsi won the first round in the presidential election, he took
only 25 per cent of the vote, well down on the Brotherhood’s 41 per cent in
the parliamentary ballot, and Islamist candidates took fewer than half the
votes overall.
Moreover, a parliament more favourably inclined to the army could appoint a
more favourable constitutional committee, which could then try to dole out
powers in accordance with who controls the organs of state: more for the
presidency if Mr Shafiq wins at the weekend, more for parliament if Mr Morsi
wins.
A week before Mr Mubarak stepped down, a prominent left-wing lawyer, Ahmed
Seif al-Islam, told The Telegraph that a senior officer interrogating him
during his most recent arrest had told him the army’s plans for “transition”.
The army did not care much either way about Mr Mubarak, he suggested, and
was very keen to see the back of his ambitious son Gamal, who was being
groomed for power.
If Mr Mubarak had to be sacrificed for the army to retain power, so be it. “The
military will insist on keeping the regime,” Mr Seif al-Islam said.
“Of course, it has to make the elections semi-fair. But to be honest,
there can’t be a completely free election. There’s a red line.” Some
dismissed him as a conspiracist, but the last week has seen Mr Mubarak
jailed for life, and the army handed near-unlimited power. The conspiracy
doesn’t have many stages left to run.
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