France election 2012: François Hollande to be greeted by market turmoil

“The talks have already begun,” said a European diplomat. “Hollande
is the one making the overtures. He needs friends, he needs Merkel and the
euro locks him into a relationship where Germany, and its economy, is
dominant. He is the one who needs a deal more than she does – and she knows
it.”

On May 15, the French statistics body Insée will publish a report on the state
of the nation’s economy. If forecasts suggest growth will be below the 1.7
per cent projected by Mr Hollande for next year, he will have to roll back
parts of his programme, further raising taxes and cutting spending to meet a
pledge to cut the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP next year.

His camp will not draw up their July budget before the Cour des Comptes, the
state auditor, completes a special audit of the public accounts in late
June. Socialist sources have intimated that if it finds the coffers emptier
than previously thought, the report could serve as a pretext for adopting
harsher budget measures.

For Eric Heyer, an economist, there is no way out for France but huge cuts. “An
effort of colossal proportions will be asked of the French,” he said,
adding that €120 billion must be saved in five years.

“The next state audit report will probably confirm that France is in a
state of quasi-bankruptcy.”

On May 16, the treasury will seek to raise a €1 billion on the markets, and
all eyes will be on how well it fares.

Mr Hollande has promised to “dominate” financial markets, and early
on in his campaign stated that finance was his “greatest adversity”.

Since then, he has toned down the rhetoric, saying he is not “dangerous”
and merely wants more regulation, like many Western leaders.

Despite these caveats, many, and not just his rivals, warn that the Hollande
programme – which includes creating 60,000 teaching jobs, raising the
minimum wage and slapping a 75 per cent tax on millionaire earners – will
quickly spook the markets.

With barely a pause for breath, Mr Hollande will take the presidential Airbus
to a meeting of the G8 at Camp David on May 18-19, followed on May 20-21 by
a Nato summit in Chicago.

He can expect a chilly reception from President Barack Obama when he tells him
France is going to withdraw its 3,400 troops from Afghanistan by the end of
2012, a year ahead of schedule. “We will find the terms of language
that will enable us not to break the china,” said a Hollande aide.

Then on May 30, the unemployment figures for April will arrive. Mr Hollande
can expect bad news at a time when joblessness in the eurozone has reached a
record high.

A spate of redundancies and closures, including household names such as
Carrefour, which were postponed during the elections, are expected. The
losses will anger trade unions and threaten to ignite social conflict,
marring the opening days of his presidency.

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