Hugo Chavez faces presidential challenge from state Governor Henrique Capriles

Hundreds of supporters celebrated the win outside Capriles’ campaign
headquarters, holding small flags emblazoned with the slogan “There is
a way.” Fireworks exploded in the sky above the crowd.

Some of Capriles’ supporters said they think he has a good chance of winning
over Venezuelans who otherwise might lean pro-Chavez because he has taken a
largely non-confrontational approach while promising solutions to problems
including 26-percent inflation and one of the highest murder rates in Latin
America.

Diego Prada, a 23-year-old marketing manager, said he thinks Capriles’
inclusive approach offers a much better shot against Chavez than other
competitors who have taken a hard line against the president.

“People are tired of so much confrontation,” Prada said. As for
Capriles, he said, “he has a message of unity.”

The once-divided opposition has gained popularity in recent years, and the
race could end up being the toughest re-election bid of Chavez’s career.

The leftist president easily won re-election with 63 per cent of the vote in
2006, but since then his popularity has declined, in part due to ills
including crime and economic troubles.

Chavez’s approval ratings have topped 50 per cent in recent polls, and his
struggle last year with cancer doesn’t appear to have hurt his popularity.
The president says he’s cancer-free after undergoing surgery and
chemotherapy last year, and has been energetic in his hours-long television
appearances, apparently trying to show he can still keep up with a younger
challenger.

Chavez remains a hero to many of his supporters and maintains a visceral
connection to a significant segment of the poor in Venezuela. He also will
use the full powers of his government and a bonanza of public spending to
try to ensure a victory in the Oct 7 election.

Chavez has already kicked his campaign machinery into gear. He has increased
government spending by launching new social programs that offer cash
benefits for the poor and invested heavily in new railways, public housing
and cable car systems in Venezuela’s sprawling hillside slums. As the
election nears, he will inaugurate other big-ticket projects that grab
attention, including the planned launch of Venezuela’s second Chinese-made
satellite shortly before the October vote.

But Chavez has warned voters that if they don’t re-elect him, his social
programmes called “missions” would vanish. That threat, though
disputed by Capriles, could have an influence on some in the run-up to the
vote.

For the opposition, the primary showed its ability to mobilise voters, a key
asset in its efforts to compete with Chavez. Lines formed on Sunday at
polling stations in some poor neighbourhoods that have traditionally been
pro-Chavez strongholds.

“I decided to come to vote to express my complete unhappiness. In these
12 years, the country has gone downhill,” said Ruben Rodriguez, a
59-year-old construction worker who was waiting in line to vote.

In order to compete, Capriles probably will need to win over voters who leant
pro-Chavez in the past, who have grown disillusioned with the government and
who don’t strongly identify with either side.

“Confrontation and fear are going to be part of that past,”
Capriles said after voting. “Hope can deal with any obstacle they put
in our way. Today is a day of hope.”

Other offices including state governor posts were also being decided in the
primaries. Venezuelans living abroad were able to cast ballots in cities
from Miami to Madrid.

Venezuela has grown heavily polarised, with most either admiring or despising
Chavez. About one-fourth of voters are in neither political camp, and in
that group about 10 to 15 per cent are likely to cast ballots, said pollster
Luis Vicente Leon. Many of the swing voters are young people who have grown
up during Chavez’s presidency, Leon said.

Recent polls before the primary vote showed Capriles with about 40 per cent
support among opposition voters.

Mercedes Aponte, a 60-year-old high schoolteacher, said she’s convinced
Capriles would bring improvements in education, health care and anti-crime
efforts.

“Through him, there’s hope. It’s a new day dawning for Venezuela,”
Ms Aponte said, waiting to cast her ballot in downtown Caracas in a line
that snaked around the block.

Capriles may not be able to compete with Chavez’s government money nor the
president’s ability to take over the airwaves of all TV and radio stations
when he deems appropriate. But Capriles can count on ample campaign funding
from anti-Chavez donors, as well as high visibility in opposition-aligned
media including the television channel Globovision, private radio stations
and newspapers.

The country’s opposition coalition, which united to hold a presidential
primary vote for the first time, has become better organised and will be an
important ally in mobilising voters for Capriles against Chavez’s campaign
machine. His leading rivals promptly united behind Capriles, saying they
will join his campaign.

Perez congratulated Capriles as soon as the results were announced, saying: “You’re
going to be the next president.”

The results were announced with 95 per cent of ballots counted, and Capriles
dominated the field with more than 1.8 million votes. Several of the
opposition contenders called the higher-than-expected turnout a victory.

Opposition presidential contender Maria Corina Machado, a congresswoman who
takes a hard line against Chavez, conceded defeat before the results were
announced, saying she also will actively back Capriles.

“We will stay united,” she said. “Tomorrow, the struggle
intensifies.”

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