Iran reinforces nuclear facility against attack

More work is believed to be underway to minimise any such weaknesses. Until
then, the official added that an Israeli attack might still succeed in
disabling Fordow, but the option could disappear when the hardening process
is complete.

Mr Netanyahu must decide whether to launch a strike before this happens.
Otherwise, the power to disable Iran’s nuclear programme by military means
would transfer to Mr Obama or his successor. Israel could find itself
entirely dependent on the United States to counter what Mr Netanyahu
considers to be an existential threat.

“Once the stuff is under the mountain and operating under the mountain,
it essentially becomes immune to Israeli military attack,” said Simon
Henderson, head of Gulf policy at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy

The heaviest bunker-busting bomb in the US arsenal is the GBU-57 Massive
Ordnance Penetrator, weighing 14 tons – three times the weight of the most
powerful device deployed by Israel.

Even after work on Fordow is complete, the plant may be vulnerable to a weapon
this powerful. But this bomb could never be dropped by the Israeli air
force: only the giant B2 and B52 bombers flown by the US Air Force are
capable of carrying the GBU-57.

But Mr Netanyahu will be deeply reluctant to be left in a position where
Israel must rely on America.

“The window of opportunity isn’t closing for the US. But Israel doesn’t
want to find itself beholden to the US for military action,” added Mr
Henderson. “Israel doesn’t really think it can rely on the US to do the
necessary.”

A diplomat from a country in the region said the pressure on Mr Netanyahu
meant there was a “growing risk of an Israeli intervention into Iran”.

However, America fears that US forces would inevitably become embroiled in any
war started by Israel. Iran deploys Shahab 3 ballistic missiles capable of
striking targets anywhere in the Middle East, including the headquarters of
the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and al-Udeid air base in Qatar, where the US
air force has its regional hub.

Iran may also seek to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing up
global oil prices. All this would trigger a US military response.

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